2010 Chinese construction machinery market is still warm?

When it's warm again, it's hard to put interest.

In 2009, a never-before-seen bout to fill the market filled the hunger caused by an economic crisis. However, as the banquet is about to disperse, the view that the economy will look promising in the long term and the bearish view in the near future will gradually gain the upper hand. The construction machinery industry will bear the brunt of this. .

Although the country has repeatedly reiterated that it will maintain the continuity of credit and investment policies, although one view is that 2010 will be the starting point for the next round of rapid economic growth in China, expectations for the tightening of monetary policy in the second half of the year and the recent national Part of the fine-tuning of the macro-level, or let most of the industry, the securities agency worried.

In 2010, China's construction machinery market will show a trend of highs and lows. This is currently widely recognized by all sectors. Not only that, but on January 13, a market observer from Xugong Group told the China Industry News reporter: “ The low point in the second half of the year may be very low!" He even worried that this will drag down the year and lead to negative growth in the industry.

Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in late 2008, the growth rate of China's construction machinery industry has slowed down. Although driven by huge amounts of 4 trillion yuan in the country, the whole industry achieved a growth rate of 12% in 2009, but some in the industry believe that this year's macroeconomic environment The changes may be difficult to boost the industry's overall explosive growth. This will also mean that the industry's "high-speed development period" has come to an end in the past decade.

Following the increasing economic environment with unknown factors, the trend of construction machinery market will become more and more difficult to grasp. Irregular fluctuations may be the “normal” for a long time to come.

Before the high and low the whole year is difficult to predict

In fact, there is still some disagreement in the industry as to the extent to which the industry will be “high” in the first half of this year, and to what extent it will be “low” in the second half of the year, and whether the overall year will rise or fall.

Not long ago, Shandong Heavy Industry Group held a 2009 business conference in Jinan. The chairman of the group, Tan Xuguang, once predicted in the speech that the construction machinery market in the first half of 2010 will have an “explosive” market. His confidence comes from the country for extending credit and The firm attitude of investment policy.

Shantui, as the main force of Shandong Heavy Industry's engineering machinery, its chairman Zhang Xiuwen made a further explanation of Tan Xuguang's judgment: the follow-up market for the started projects in 2009 will be superimposed with the market brought by the 2010 new projects and will be effective. Push up sales in the first half of 2010.

In recognition of this point of view, not only the Shantui family, according to the reporter's understanding, has the company put more than 70% of its annual production and sales tasks in the key first half.

However, Zhang Xiuwen also said that in the second half of 2010, China's construction machinery market may not be optimistic about the market.

As the judgment of some people, monetary policy may tighten in the second half of the year and the number of new projects started is significantly lower than in 2009. In addition, the recovery of overseas markets is still slow. Many factors will cause this year's construction machinery market to release energy in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it is likely to fall into an unpredictable trough. On January 13, Mao Zhongwen, deputy secretary-general of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, told reporters that in 2010 China's overall construction machinery increase will be around 10%.

The reporter noted that in the most recent three-year investment plan announced by the Ministry of Railways, it was emphasized that at least 700 billion yuan should be invested each year for new projects.

However, in Mao Zhongwen's view, due to the fact that part of the investment at the end of 2008 was actually superimposed on the year of 2009, compared to the actual pulling effect of the construction machinery market in 2010 is actually a slight decline. He also pointed out that to achieve 10 With the increase of %, real estate turnover will become an important indicator.

Another person in the industry believes that for the current series of measures adopted by the country to curb excessive housing prices, it is unlikely that it will exceed expectations. At the same time, Mao Zhongwen predicts that the 10% increase is actually also slightly smaller than 2009. There is a drop.

Export recovery structure has changed

Then, where are the opportunities for the construction machinery industry in 2010?

For this issue, most people leave the answer to overseas markets. After domestic investment has basically been “fixed” in 2010, the industry has invariably focused on foreign orders that have experienced huge gaps in the past two years.

The data obtained by the reporter from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association shows that sales in the domestic market rose by 24.7% in 2009, while the value of exports fell by 44%. This also means a huge amount for China’s construction machinery industry, which exports 1/3 of its exports. Rebound space.

"Most companies will make strategic shifts to exports in 2010." Mao Zhongwen said that the monthly increase in exports of construction machinery in China indicates that although the international market will not recover quickly, its slow climb has already emerged. And the products of our country The price advantage will bring better than other countries' benefits.

At the same time, some people in the industry pointed out that this is an opportunity for China’s construction machinery enterprises to improve their discourse power in the field of international construction machinery manufacturing. It is also a crucial year for the decision of whether China’s major groups with hundreds of billions of dreams can finally realize their dreams.

First of all, suffered from the international financial crisis, foreign construction machinery giants suffered heavy losses, even in some areas are at stake. And Chinese companies have launched a powerful offensive in the past two years to enter the international market. According to industry sources, Zoomlion With the expansion and promotion of SANY in the field of concrete machinery, it will be possible to first realize the change of the world pattern in this field. The time node may appear in 2010.

Second, the domestic market also has the opportunity. According to a research report by a securities investment institution, the demand structure of China's construction machinery market will change in 2010. Unlike the industry demand in 2009, which depends mainly on government investment, the real estate investment will be different in 2010. Warmer, the recovery of manufacturing and exports has become an important driving force for the growth of the industry. As a result of real estate investment, concrete machinery will perform well and benefit from the recovery of the logistics industry. Forklifts and other products will also experience high growth.

However, as pointed out by some viewpoints, there are still a number of unforeseen factors in the market in 2010, especially the international economic environment has not yet stabilized, and the current sales methods of products are increasingly diversified, especially the introduction of agents and financial leasing, allowing enterprises to In fact, it is impossible to accurately judge market conditions based on orders. This is also a risk for China's construction machinery industry.