2011-2014 U.S. market share forecast of major automakers

In a report named Car Wars 2011-2014 released by the United States in 2010, Merrill Lynch analyzed and predicted the market share of the major car companies in the US automobile market from 2011 to 2014.

The main parameter that Merrill used to analyze the car's products and forecast market share was "substitution rate", which is the proportion of new models in the car sales. Here, the "new model" refers to the replacement model and the new model, while the revised model and the added model are not included in this scope.

Judging from the performance of various car companies in the US market from 2000 to 2010, the decline in market share of GM, Ford, and Chrysler (see Table 1) is related to the lower replacement rate of their products and the too slow replacement of models. The Japanese and South Korean automakers’ market share has increased significantly due to higher product replacement rates.

Table 1: (2000-2010) average replacement rate of car prices in the market share of generic change * -9.6% 12.4% 13.2% -8.2% Ford Chrysler 13.9% -6.7% industry average car prices in the US market mainly product replacement rate and changes in market share 14.8% 0.0% European Series 13.2% 2.6% Honda 17.7% 4.7% Toyota 18.3% 8.3% Nissan 19.4% 3.4% Korean 20.1% 5.3% Source: Merrill Lynch Compiler: Gasgolux.com* Market share based on 1999-2009 The year's share is calculated.

For the share of car companies in the US market in 2011-2014, Merrill's forecast is as follows:

Table 2: US Market main product replacement rate car prices and market share forecast 2011-2014 model year car prices average replacement rate in fiscal year 2013 market share in 2010 from January to April market share of 32% Honda 13.1% 10.5% Ford 30 % 17.3% 16.6% Nissan 29% 8.4% 8.3% General 27% 18.8% 18.7% Industry average 27% / / Korean 27% 7.1% 7.5% Toyota 26% 16.5% 15.4% European 25% 6.9% 8.5% Chrysler 24 % 6.9% 9.3% Source: Merrill Lynch Compiler: Gasgoo.com

In the 2011-2014 model year, GM’s market share will remain at the current level of 18-19%. The main reference for making this judgment is that GM will increase the use of global platforms for the R&D of cars and CUVs (Urban SUVs), as well as important models planned for the 2014 model year - the new generation of pickups and large SUV platforms.

Ford’s market share growth will continue, supported by steady new product launch plans, and its market share will reach 17%-18%.

Because Chrysler has the lowest replacement rate of products, its market share will be squeezed in the future. Due to the relatively low investment in product upgrading, Chrysler clearly needs to catch up as quickly as possible in the fierce competition.

The product cycle of Japanese car companies is in line with the industry average. Although Honda's replacement rate is the highest, Merrill does not believe that the market share of Japanese car companies will also increase significantly. The rapid increase in the share of car companies in the past decade has ended.

Korean car companies will remain highly competitive, but their market share may grow at a slower pace. This is mainly because the replacement rate is only 27%, which is equivalent to the industry average.