Since last year, the topic of auto overcapacity has been incessant, eventually leading to the regulation of the automobile industry capacity by relevant state agencies. Recently, the "Notice on Several Opinions on the Structural Adjustment of the Auto Industry" has been announced, from the entry into the automotive industry to the threshold With the increase of project approval conditions, various stringent measures to regulate production capacity have far more impact than just the production capacity itself.
According to theory, the surplus of excess capacity is directly related to the economic benefits and investment returns of enterprises, that is, it is related to the development of enterprises and the issue of life and death. Enterprises should care more. Interestingly, it is not the enterprises that are worrying about the overcapacity, but the government management departments. It is the theoretical circle that talks about overcapacity. It is the consulting department, and the media is even more lively. The company is a matter of fact. Do not close oneself, hold high and look like, silence to the right, this in the end is "the emperor is not in a hurry to supervise anxiousness", or "the authorities, fans, bystanders clear" it?
In fact, silence is also an attitude. To a certain extent, companies do not agree with the “over-sufficiency theoryâ€. They are just inconvenient or unwilling to express different opinions. What they want to do is still in the hands of others. How can they be punished? What about children? Or, each company believes that it is the production capacity of someone else's home that needs to be regulated. This problem does not exist, and it even secretly exults that the control of others' production capacity is a good opportunity for them to increase their production capacity.
In recent years, there have been strange phenomena in the economic circles. All those who follow the above instructions have often lost the opportunity for development. Those who are “disobedient†have taken advantage of the trend. When we look at the success of today's successful companies, when several of them started working, they were not severely criticized, obstructed or suppressed. Including the most respected Chery and Geely today! Oaks, who had once entered the auto industry and announced its withdrawal, was also behind the tide and was under pressure to vigorously produce backward meters that were forced to be phased out by the state. It then became the industry's first and accumulated capital to enter the auto industry. Listening to today’s “successful people†talks about their successful experiences. There is almost nothing wrong with them—reverse thinking: The more you don’t let it work, the more you need to do it to ensure success. Is this one of the reasons why there is “no orders, no bans�
Of course, on the issue of production capacity, the mentality of the company is even more complicated. In addition to the above-mentioned rebellious psychology, there is the so-called “bus principleâ€: people who are not on the train are always trying to squeeze it up and do not overload it. When you get on the car, you want to close the car door behind you. In the same way, companies that did not take the project always hope that the bigger the better the “gateâ€, the better the company that has obtained the approval of the project, hopes that it would be best not to have a second home. Less competition is a good thing.
For the overcapacity in the automobile industry, I have been puzzled. The entire industry is under strict control of the management department. Whoever wants to do it, who does not do it, and who has the ability to do it, are the competent authorities of the government and have the final say. With strict and thorough planning, it is not a restaurant on the street. If you want to open it, how can the problem of overcapacity occur? On the contrary, there is no problem of overcapacity in restaurants without macro-control.
Since the early 90s of last century, the automobile authorities have repeatedly declared publicly that they “no longer approve new car projects†and have not heard what they said when the ban was lifted, but the car projects are coming up one after another. I really don't know how the more than two dozen cars other than the “three major three small†projects were born. In the same way, what we have heard has always been the voice of controlling production capacity. We have never heard that when we advocate the vigorous development of production capacity, how can production capacity always be surplus? Having said that, if it weren’t the excess production capacity, the Chinese car industry could not have developed so fast. Today, the Chinese people will not have so many choices to buy a car, and they will not be able to buy a car with such a price.
In fact, there is no excess capacity, and the sales figures are clear. Regardless of whether the calculated capacity on paper is true or not, and whether the official estimate of the production capacity for the next 10 or 20 years is reliable, “experts†say that “there is no excess capacity and cannot be used as a criterion for market salesâ€. Can't agree. Overcapacity is not a measure of market sales. What standard can be used?
In the face of this round of overcapacity, some experts said that it was "excessive structural capacity" and "inefficient production capacity surplus." To say nothing, the overcapacity is, of course, a "structured surplus," and more is of course an inefficient production capacity.
The current situation is that the types of automobile products on the market are light, medium and heavy, and all-inclusive; displacement is small and large, and everything is available; from the perspective of grades, everything is high, middle and low, and there is no gap left. Filled in. Any type of vehicle on the market, any kind of displacement, any kind of grade, have good sales, but also have a bad sale. The concrete manifestation of the so-called "structured excess production capacity" is that some companies have a great pressure on the sales of some products in the market, while some products of some enterprises are in short supply. "Structural adjustment" can neither allocate the production capacity of overcapacity enterprises to those with insufficient production capacity, nor can the production of products with oversupply exceed the production capacity of enterprises with overcapacity, and generally talk about "product structure adjustment" without any significance.
Under the conditions of a market economy, there is no excess capacity, and how the product structure is adjusted is a matter for the company to make decisions on its own. Others cannot help, and this is particularly true of cars that are highly competitive. What government agencies and consulting agencies can do is, at best, provide as much information as possible. Excessive administrative intervention tends to be unpleasant. There have been too many such cases in history. Leaders have repeatedly wanted to follow Their own will to change the laws of the market will inevitably be counterproductive and will not have any other consequences today.
We believe that fair competition is not only the propeller of industrial development, but also the industrial structure, including the best means of capacity adjustment. No matter what kind of measures are taken to control production capacity, we must not undermine the principle of fair competition. Reporter Cheng Yuan
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