The industry insiders believe that in the future, the sales situation in China's refined oil market is still gratifying. Although the state proposed that the main tasks during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period are energy conservation and emission reduction, various measures should be taken to limit the development of high-energy-consuming industries and reduce the consumption of energy, especially for oil and other disposable energy sources, but the rapid development of the national economy. The trend of increasing demand for refined oil will not change.
In the past 10 years, China's economy has maintained a rapid development and has also driven a strong growth in refined oil consumption. It is expected that the proportion of the transportation industry in the tertiary industry will steadily increase from 16.4% in 2000 to 18.2% in 2010; the average annual growth rate of motor vehicle ownership is expected to reach 7%. Among them, gasoline cars 7.1%, diesel cars 6.6%. In 2010, China's total oil demand will reach 390 million tons to 400 million tons.
However, the growth of demand for refined oil products in China has also attracted the attention of more and more international oil giants, which will allow domestic companies to face competition. The growth rate of demand for refined oil products in China is accelerating. The Chinese market is becoming the main battlefield for major oil companies in the world. Some well-known oil companies in the world are looking for opportunities to enter the Chinese market in various ways through various channels to divide up the current world. A few high-growth markets consume a few.
Experts pointed out that during the period when crude oil processed by the refining industry enters high oil prices, crude oil prices are basically stable at between 50 and 70 US dollars, and it is difficult to fall back to the level below 50 US dollars. For this reason, the price of refined oil in the international market will continue to rise, and the increase in refined oil prices will be greater than the increase in crude oil prices, and the processing profit of the world's refining industry will enter a new era. The rise in domestic refined oil prices is difficult to keep up with the international market, and profits are lower than the world level.
Due to the relatively late start of China's refining business, there is a considerable gap between the scale, refining technology, processing cost and other international advanced levels, and the competitiveness needs to be further improved. According to statistics, there are 658 refineries in the world's major countries and regions, with an average size of 6.47 million tons, of which 10 million tons of refineries account for 50% of the world's total capacity. The average size of China is only 6.01 million tons, which is lower than the world average and even lower than the average level of 7.15 million tons in Asia. Due to the limitation of scale and installation capacity, the main economic indicators of the refinery companies are lower than those of foreign counterparts.
In addition, domestic refinery sales companies will also face pressure from related policy changes. In December 2006, the full liberalization of the refined oil retail market and the wholesale market made it possible for foreign major oil companies to enter the domestic refined oil distribution chain. According to statistics, almost all the large-scale oil and petrochemical companies listed in the “Fortune†world’s top 500 have invested and built factories in China. The total investment amount of the largest investment company BP has reached US$4.5 billion, and there are 1,500 gas stations in more than 2,500 foreign-invested companies. Many gas stations began to operate. After the operation of these gas stations, the first is the “price warâ€, which has a direct impact on domestic product oil sales.
Regarding the impact of related policies, experts also pointed out that due to the opening up of imports and exports, especially the reduction of import tariffs, the domestic refined oil market will also face the impact of imported resources due to the lower transportation costs of neighboring major countries to domestic coastal ports. In addition, the environmental protection policy requirements also make the two major groups bear a relatively heavy burden of investment costs.
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