Entering 2008, the food crisis has intensified and it has spread to the world. The price of Thai rice soared from US$330/ton in the first quarter to US$1,000/ton, an increase of more than 200%. According to the latest report from the National Development and Reform Commission, the prices of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans in China increased by a different degree in the same period of last year.
Global food shortages have sounded alarms for governments. In 2008, China once again put forward the basic national policy of taking grain as its guideline, and increased its support for “agriculture, rural areas and farmersâ€. The budgetary expenditure reached 563.5 billion yuan, an increase of 30%, which is the fastest growing year in recent years. It is expected that in the future the country will further increase investment in agriculture and establish a long-term mechanism for supporting agricultural development. Experts believe that in this situation, China's agricultural machinery industry will usher in new opportunities for development.
Food production will change in many ways
On the whole, the intensification of the food crisis will not only affect the direction of China’s agricultural policy, but will also cause the following changes in China’s grain production:
Planting area will increase. Under the dual influence of the country's agricultural support policy and the grain market demand, land reclamation is expected to be gradually reclaimed, and some mining areas and abandoned land will also be re-used. In addition, driven by profits, the heat of reclamation in some places may be awakened again, which may also increase the actual cultivated area.
The planting structure will be adjusted. It is expected that from this year the planting areas of the three major crops of wheat, corn and rice will rise, while the proportion of cash crops and other non-agricultural crops will decline.
The rate of grain replenishment will increase. In recent years, the planting momentum of the second season to the second season and the third quarter to the second season will continue to be contained. With no increase in the area, the land use rate is expected to increase.
Modern and efficient agriculture will be developed. China’s primitive and extensive agricultural production methods cannot fundamentally solve the problem of agricultural production. In the future, China’s agriculture will inevitably develop towards large-scale agriculture and high-efficiency agriculture.
In addition, as international food prices continue to rise and investor expectations for agriculture increase, investors are swarming toward long-term neglected agriculture. The stock market is a barometer of the economy. In the context of global food price increases, agricultural stocks have become the target of many investment and speculators. In the domestic market, the country’s macro-control basically has no adverse impact on agricultural stocks. Compared with other industries, the macro-level uncertainty is much less, which is reflected in the stock market. Investors have paid more attention to agricultural stocks. .
Agricultural machinery industry faces new opportunities for development
The fundamental way out for agriculture is mechanization. Faced with the situation of rising domestic food prices, Premier Wen Jiabao has repeatedly stated that “there is food in the hands and there is no panic in mindâ€. It is expected that our government will further increase investment in agriculture in the future, as the most important guarantee for improving agricultural production—the development of agricultural machinery will inevitably receive more attention. As with the national policy of strong agricultural and beneficial agriculture, China will Establish a long-term mechanism that supports long-term development of agricultural machinery.
According to the agricultural development trend under the global food crisis, it can be speculated that the future development of agricultural machinery will face many new opportunities.
First, the total demand will increase. With the recovery of arable land and the increase of the rate of land re-use, the demand for agricultural machinery from “San Nong†will show a rigid growth trend.
The second is that the demand structure will undergo major adjustments. The demand for machinery for cultivating, seeding and harvesting food crops, especially large and medium-sized tractors, high-performance harvesting machinery, and large and medium-sized planters will increase, such as large and medium-sized horsepower tractors, medium and large-scale wheat combine harvesters, and corn combine harvesters. Wheat and corn no-till seeders, etc.; Correspondingly, some inefficient agricultural tools will speed up the replacement. The agricultural machinery required for the production of oil crops will be rapidly developed, such as rapeseed harvesters, seeders, and peanut harvesters. Demand for agricultural machinery for economic crops will decline. Some sunset products will rejuvenate, such as land reclamation, land selection in mining areas, and renovation of old homesteads, which will increase the demand for crawler tractors and bulldozers. In addition, the development of undeveloped developing countries will increase the demand for trailing tractors and modified products. .
Third, the government's leading role will be even greater. The experience of agricultural machinery development in China in recent years shows that the role of the government in the development of agricultural machinery is more and more important. The dependence of the agricultural machinery industry on national policies is getting higher and higher, and the direction of the government’s macroeconomic policies determines the direction of development of the agricultural machinery industry. . Agricultural machinery policies will play a greater role in the development of agricultural machinery in the coming years, and the government will play a more significant role in this period. Therefore, agricultural machinery companies must pay close attention to the government’s policy direction, actively cooperate with the government in completing the agricultural development goals and tasks, and deviate from the government. Willing market behavior will be unwise.
Fourth, export demand will grow rapidly. The global grain shortage will intensify the demand for agricultural machinery in the international market. In the past two years, the international agricultural machinery industry has developed rapidly. China is becoming a global agricultural machinery manufacturing base. In the future, for a long time, domestic agricultural machinery will still have obvious cost-effectiveness advantages. Therefore, the international market's demand for Chinese-made agricultural machinery products and spare parts will also be a long-term growth trend.
Fifth, competition will be more intense. With the substantial increase in the purchase price of international bulk commodities, the production cost of the agricultural machinery manufacturing industry continues to grow. The limited purchasing power of farmers, the difficulty of attracting users to agricultural machinery companies, and the advantages of multinational companies in capital, technology, management, and marketing experience have accelerated the global distribution. Many powerful domestic companies have been subordinated to them, and the government departments regulate the industry. Behaviors are also setting standards and thresholds for market access. These will make the competition in the industry more intense in the future, and companies with weaker capabilities are likely to be eliminated.
Sixth, the demand for high-tech agricultural machinery will increase. High-tech agricultural machinery has played a prominent role in improving production efficiency and reducing labor intensity. For example, in the United Kingdom, agriculture can produce 60% of the country's food with 1% labor. The demand for high-tech agricultural machinery in China is also prosperous with the adjustment and change of agricultural structure.
In short, the beginnings of the global food crisis will enable the countries of the world to raise awareness of food security again, and will also pay more attention to the development of agriculture. "As long as workers are good at their work, they must first sharpen their tools." As an important guarantee for modern agricultural machinery, agricultural machinery will surely usher in a new round of development opportunities, but the characteristics and trends of demand may change drastically. Agricultural machinery companies must In-depth analysis and study of the new demand characteristics of the agricultural machinery market, guided by market demand, to provide the market with products that can meet new demands as soon as possible.
Global food shortages have sounded alarms for governments. In 2008, China once again put forward the basic national policy of taking grain as its guideline, and increased its support for “agriculture, rural areas and farmersâ€. The budgetary expenditure reached 563.5 billion yuan, an increase of 30%, which is the fastest growing year in recent years. It is expected that in the future the country will further increase investment in agriculture and establish a long-term mechanism for supporting agricultural development. Experts believe that in this situation, China's agricultural machinery industry will usher in new opportunities for development.
Food production will change in many ways
On the whole, the intensification of the food crisis will not only affect the direction of China’s agricultural policy, but will also cause the following changes in China’s grain production:
Planting area will increase. Under the dual influence of the country's agricultural support policy and the grain market demand, land reclamation is expected to be gradually reclaimed, and some mining areas and abandoned land will also be re-used. In addition, driven by profits, the heat of reclamation in some places may be awakened again, which may also increase the actual cultivated area.
The planting structure will be adjusted. It is expected that from this year the planting areas of the three major crops of wheat, corn and rice will rise, while the proportion of cash crops and other non-agricultural crops will decline.
The rate of grain replenishment will increase. In recent years, the planting momentum of the second season to the second season and the third quarter to the second season will continue to be contained. With no increase in the area, the land use rate is expected to increase.
Modern and efficient agriculture will be developed. China’s primitive and extensive agricultural production methods cannot fundamentally solve the problem of agricultural production. In the future, China’s agriculture will inevitably develop towards large-scale agriculture and high-efficiency agriculture.
In addition, as international food prices continue to rise and investor expectations for agriculture increase, investors are swarming toward long-term neglected agriculture. The stock market is a barometer of the economy. In the context of global food price increases, agricultural stocks have become the target of many investment and speculators. In the domestic market, the country’s macro-control basically has no adverse impact on agricultural stocks. Compared with other industries, the macro-level uncertainty is much less, which is reflected in the stock market. Investors have paid more attention to agricultural stocks. .
Agricultural machinery industry faces new opportunities for development
The fundamental way out for agriculture is mechanization. Faced with the situation of rising domestic food prices, Premier Wen Jiabao has repeatedly stated that “there is food in the hands and there is no panic in mindâ€. It is expected that our government will further increase investment in agriculture in the future, as the most important guarantee for improving agricultural production—the development of agricultural machinery will inevitably receive more attention. As with the national policy of strong agricultural and beneficial agriculture, China will Establish a long-term mechanism that supports long-term development of agricultural machinery.
According to the agricultural development trend under the global food crisis, it can be speculated that the future development of agricultural machinery will face many new opportunities.
First, the total demand will increase. With the recovery of arable land and the increase of the rate of land re-use, the demand for agricultural machinery from “San Nong†will show a rigid growth trend.
The second is that the demand structure will undergo major adjustments. The demand for machinery for cultivating, seeding and harvesting food crops, especially large and medium-sized tractors, high-performance harvesting machinery, and large and medium-sized planters will increase, such as large and medium-sized horsepower tractors, medium and large-scale wheat combine harvesters, and corn combine harvesters. Wheat and corn no-till seeders, etc.; Correspondingly, some inefficient agricultural tools will speed up the replacement. The agricultural machinery required for the production of oil crops will be rapidly developed, such as rapeseed harvesters, seeders, and peanut harvesters. Demand for agricultural machinery for economic crops will decline. Some sunset products will rejuvenate, such as land reclamation, land selection in mining areas, and renovation of old homesteads, which will increase the demand for crawler tractors and bulldozers. In addition, the development of undeveloped developing countries will increase the demand for trailing tractors and modified products. .
Third, the government's leading role will be even greater. The experience of agricultural machinery development in China in recent years shows that the role of the government in the development of agricultural machinery is more and more important. The dependence of the agricultural machinery industry on national policies is getting higher and higher, and the direction of the government’s macroeconomic policies determines the direction of development of the agricultural machinery industry. . Agricultural machinery policies will play a greater role in the development of agricultural machinery in the coming years, and the government will play a more significant role in this period. Therefore, agricultural machinery companies must pay close attention to the government’s policy direction, actively cooperate with the government in completing the agricultural development goals and tasks, and deviate from the government. Willing market behavior will be unwise.
Fourth, export demand will grow rapidly. The global grain shortage will intensify the demand for agricultural machinery in the international market. In the past two years, the international agricultural machinery industry has developed rapidly. China is becoming a global agricultural machinery manufacturing base. In the future, for a long time, domestic agricultural machinery will still have obvious cost-effectiveness advantages. Therefore, the international market's demand for Chinese-made agricultural machinery products and spare parts will also be a long-term growth trend.
Fifth, competition will be more intense. With the substantial increase in the purchase price of international bulk commodities, the production cost of the agricultural machinery manufacturing industry continues to grow. The limited purchasing power of farmers, the difficulty of attracting users to agricultural machinery companies, and the advantages of multinational companies in capital, technology, management, and marketing experience have accelerated the global distribution. Many powerful domestic companies have been subordinated to them, and the government departments regulate the industry. Behaviors are also setting standards and thresholds for market access. These will make the competition in the industry more intense in the future, and companies with weaker capabilities are likely to be eliminated.
Sixth, the demand for high-tech agricultural machinery will increase. High-tech agricultural machinery has played a prominent role in improving production efficiency and reducing labor intensity. For example, in the United Kingdom, agriculture can produce 60% of the country's food with 1% labor. The demand for high-tech agricultural machinery in China is also prosperous with the adjustment and change of agricultural structure.
In short, the beginnings of the global food crisis will enable the countries of the world to raise awareness of food security again, and will also pay more attention to the development of agriculture. "As long as workers are good at their work, they must first sharpen their tools." As an important guarantee for modern agricultural machinery, agricultural machinery will surely usher in a new round of development opportunities, but the characteristics and trends of demand may change drastically. Agricultural machinery companies must In-depth analysis and study of the new demand characteristics of the agricultural machinery market, guided by market demand, to provide the market with products that can meet new demands as soon as possible.
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