Under the impetus of external competitive pressure and internal ambition, the reorganization of car companies will become the driving force for a new round of reshuffle among the industry. "The more fierce competition in the industry, the greater the degree of turmoil in the enterprise," which seems to be the current status of the domestic automotive industry.
In 2008, monetary policy tightened, raw material costs rose, and energy prices were high. All kinds of unfavorable factors were superimposed, which further pushed the competition in the auto industry to a higher level. In a complex market situation, whether it is strong alliances or complementary advantages, the car The joint restructuring of enterprises will become the driving force for a new round of reshuffle between the industries.
Restructuring into a succession
In fact, the tightening macroeconomic situation in 2008 is merely a catalyst for joint reorganization between car companies. Even if these external factors are not taken into account, the joint reorganization between enterprises will still proceed according to the established direction.
The greater motivation comes from the intrinsic desire of Chinese car companies to become bigger and stronger.
In 2008, the Chinese auto industry, which had annual sales of more than 8 million vehicles, was tens to tens of millions of vehicles. However, in contrast to the tens of millions, the small-scale production scale still restricts the development of the Chinese car industry.
Although after several rounds of industry consolidation, but until 2007, China's total number of vehicle production companies still exceed 100, according to enterprise group statistics about 80, set the total output of the national car companies is still less than Toyota, General Motors production. According to the evaluation of foreign media, the group is starting to play together, but there is no scale effect.
In this case, mergers and acquisitions between companies have become a historical necessity. Only through necessary mergers and reorganizations can global companies be forged.
In 2007, from the Guozi Auto Group to the grassroots companies that grew up in the private sector, mergers, reorganizations, and joint ventures involving independent brand building suddenly burst out.
In addition to the evocative Shangnan cooperation, the tripartite cooperation between Southern Auto and the Taiyuan Municipal Government in reorganizing the Shanxi Provincial Automobile Industry Company and SAIC Iveco Hongyan is also a big draw last year.
Local car companies also showed no weakness, and they staged a series of joint reorganizations. Among them, Zhongtai acquired 70% equity of Jiangnan Automobile and obtained the qualified car production qualification. Shuguang, Dandong Huanghai and Changzhou Changke jointly formed a joint venture company.
It is worth noting that in the process of reorganization of domestic automobile enterprises, the dominant factor is not only the external competitive pressure and the desire for internal development, but also the invisible hand from the government—the layout planning of the domestic automobile industry and the state-owned capital. Adjustment and reorganization.
Until now, it is not difficult to understand how many domestic automobile markets still have traces of "policy cities." In the pros and cons of the automobile industry, merely relying on market forces to promote mergers and reorganizations between enterprises is not only slow, but also has limited market adjustment. Therefore, if necessary, it will be inevitable to intensify policy control.
According to the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†and “Automobile Industry Policyâ€, the country hopes to cultivate one or two large-scale automobile groups with an annual output of more than 2 million vehicles in the late period of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†and form a number of annual production of 1 million vehicles. Key auto companies. The planning requires that local governments and auto manufacturers should regard the upgrading of industrial structure as the main line for development and adjustment, enhance the role of macro-control policies, and promote joint reorganization.
Open Pandora's Box
Just as Pandora's Box was opened, once mergers and reorganizations between car companies started, the subsequent industrial adjustments would be difficult to withdraw.
In accordance with the formation of the "one to two large-scale production group with an annual output of 2 million, a number of one million large-scale key automobile enterprises," the industrial policy, the domestic large-scale automotive enterprise groups have been eager to try.
The combined SAIC Group has the largest appetite. In 2008, SAIC Motor’s production and sales target was 2 million vehicles. Followed by FAW and Dongfeng this year, the production and sales targets were 1.7 million and 1.35 million, respectively, and were placed in the first camp of the industry. Chang'an, Beiqi, Guangzhou Automobile and Chery are also not to be underestimated. The second camp they represent also has a production and sales target of between 900,000 and 1,050,000.
Among these key enterprises, apart from SAIC, which has just completed the South-South cooperation, it will take time to blend in the fruits of mergers and acquisitions. Other key auto companies have the impulse and desire for joint restructuring.
According to a map of the future automobile industry circulating in the industry, China will form a situation dominated by four major car companies. FAW will integrate the north, SAIC will integrate East China, Dongfeng will dominate South China, and GAC will dominate South China.
Guessing is not groundless. In addition to SAIC, FAW and Dongfeng have reached the goal of 1 million vehicles without any suspense. Among them, FAW has a wide range of layouts. From Changchun, Tianjin, Chengdu, and Hainan, the strength is the most balanced and the models are the most complete. It has basically taken the shape of key enterprise groups. In addition, through the successful integration of Tianqi, FAW took the lead in unveiling the reorganization of domestic large auto enterprise groups. FAW, with its rich M&A experience, will not stop there.
Compared with FAW and SAIC, the lack of self-owned brand cars is a shortcoming affecting Dongfeng’s long-term competition. Fortunately, the integration of Dongfeng's auto assets under the China National Aviation Science and Industry Group has made progress. According to the latest news, Dongan Dynamics, a subsidiary of China Aviation Power Corporation, issued a heavy announcement 40 days after the suspension, clearly disclosing the joint venture between AVIC and Dongfeng. Dongfeng’s plan to reorganize Hafei Motors has revealed. Once it wins Hafei, Dongfeng can use Hafei's existing resources to make up for the lack of self-owned car brands, and at the same time acquire the highly strategic Hafei Shenzhen base.
In addition to Dongfeng Hafei, there will be integration of BAIC and Fuqi.
Beiqi and Fuqi are able to approach each other. It is their foreign joint venture partners that are involved in the matchmaking. Although Daimler and Chrysler have already separated their families, there is a deep relationship between Beijing Auto and Fuqi and Daimler-Benz and Chrysler. After Shougang withdrew from Beijing, Beijing Automobile became the largest industrial enterprise in Beijing. Its rise and fall have a strategic impact on the follow-up development of Beijing's economy after the Olympics. It is believed that under the guidance of local governments, BAIC will not give up easily.
Changan and Guangzhou Automobile, both of which belong to the second group, will not be willing to be reorganized. After Guangqi achieved cross-regional reorganization through Guangqi Hino, the concept of merger and reorganization in southern China opened; Chang'an Automobile, after integrating Gangneung, greatly increased its strength in the southwestern region, and it excels in self-owned brand cars in the upgraded car industry competition. And new energy vehicles are even more unique.
At this point, all of the top 6 large enterprise groups in China have already or will undergo industrial restructuring. Anybody may perform the next merger and reorganization. It is only a matter of time, sooner or later.
Blind alliance may not be a good thing Although the curtain for the merger and reorganization of auto companies has been opened, but no one can guarantee that every case can be successful, the facts show that in the specific implementation process, the resistance encountered by the reorganization parties may exceed expectations .
The interests of local governments hinder the brunt. The reason why the domestic car industry has formed a "multiple and scattered" situation is inseparable from the protectionism of local governments. As auto companies have economic pulls, they are large local output value and profits, and they are all launched into the automobile industry. This has buried the hidden dangers of disperse layout, small scale, and waste of resources. When it comes to mergers and reorganizations, it will inevitably involve the local interests of the two regions. This kind of localism that is divided up is precisely a stumbling block to the rise of industrial concentration.
It is not easy to go together. Even if they come together, the success of the merger will be a test. Not to mention the fact that the demolition of Daimler and Chrysler last year was a wake-up call for China's leading automakers who wanted to grow through restructuring. Blind alliances may not be a good thing.
In addition, mergers and acquisitions reflect the "policy market" of the Chinese auto market, with rich Chinese characteristics. No matter whether it was the Tianyi cooperation 4 years ago or the just-concluded Shangnan restructuring, it did not get rid of the “government-led, market-oriented transaction†model. This has become the mainstream of the next phase of industrial restructuring. The government cannot simply integrate in order to expand its scale, just as if even a thousand wind boards were tied together, it would not be an aircraft carrier. If integration doesn't bring 1+1>2 benefits, it is failure.
In the final analysis, mergers and reorganizations must not be carried out overnight. The car companies must consider clearly before taking action: whether they want to make them bigger or bigger, or whether they want to make them bigger and stronger. There is a big difference among them.
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