After the full implementation of the National IV, will the supply of heavy-duty diesel engines reproduce the situation that was hard to come by in one machine in 2009?
Some people may laugh at the author's "idiot" question: The most important thing is that heavy diesel engines, Weichai, Yuchai, and Cummins are independent engine suppliers with sufficient capacity. All major and medium-sized truck companies have launched their own engines. The production capacity of the engine may exceed the capacity of heavy trucks. What's more, the heavy truck capacity itself is nearly half empty?
However, this concern is not groundless. Especially after the fourth year of comprehensive national escalation of emissions, this problem will emerge. By then, there may be orders from some companies that cannot meet the needs of users in time because there is no engine support.
It should be noted that the bottleneck of this engine is not from the engine itself, but from the electronically controlled high pressure common rail required by the National IV engine. As China Three’s medium-heavy cards are mostly EGR, there is not so much demand for electronic control. However, after the upgrade to the National IV, the vast majority will be the post-processing system of the electronically controlled high-pressure common rail SCR. The system's demand for electronic control is rigid.
At present, most of the electronically controlled common-rail systems for domestic engines come from two manufacturers: Bosch and Denso. The combined production capacity of these two companies cannot meet the demand for over one million heavy-duty engines each year in the country. Moreover, some of the light-state four engines are also used as high-voltage common rail electronic control systems. It is understood that Bosch and Denso's production lines are all started, and that only tens of thousands of units will be produced in one month. After commercial vehicles are fully upgraded to the National IV emission standard next year, the domestic medium- and heavy-duty engines that use the Bosch system each year will exceed one million units. . Obviously, if the entire country implements nationwide (and is true four) nationwide in the next year, then the situation of insufficient capacity of the electronic control system will immediately appear. By then, there will not be enough electronic control systems to supply the engine. It will be impossible to complete the assembly of the engine. The OEM will obviously not be able to obtain enough National IV engines. In this way, the engine will become a bottleneck again.
The author also noticed that before the National 4th upgrade, many companies swearing, including vehicle companies, engine companies, urea production companies, have announced that they have prepared for the full upgrade. Do not know whether these companies have taken into account that the electronically controlled common rail system may be in short supply?
However, if there is indeed a shortage of electronic control systems, this may not be a bad thing for China's auto parts industry. Just a few days ago (July 16th), when the author mentioned this to Fu Yuwu, the chairman of the China Automotive Engineering Society, Fu Yuwu said: “Now some parts and components companies in our country are also producing electronic control systems. Full implementation, foreign brands in short supply, vehicle companies will inevitably give these Chinese companies more opportunities." Fu Yuwu also analyzed that "only to China's independent electronic control production companies more matching opportunities, China's electronic control products Only with the opportunity to continuously improve and improve. Although China's engine control system may encounter temporary bottlenecks, but in the long term, it is conducive to the development of China's spare parts industry."
In addition, is there still a possibility that whether or not there will be a technical route that differs from that of the electronically controlled high pressure common rail before and after the full upgrade of the National IV? Some Chinese companies similar to China National Heavy Duty Truck Group already have secret weapons, but they have to wait until the National 4th upgrade before they come out. Do not give competitive companies sufficient time to study, and thus occupy a burst of opportunities?
Everything is possible. Of course, it also includes the possibility that the engine cannot meet the demand due to insufficient capacity of the electronic control system. For any medium- and heavy-duty card company, it should be prepared for a rainy day.
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