The downturn of the commercial vehicle market in 2011 has already become a foregone conclusion. For commercial vehicle companies, what will change in the commercial vehicle market in 2012 is their concern.
I. "New Energy Vehicle Planning" Brings a Light to the Commercial Vehicle Market
Although the development plan for new energy vehicles has not been introduced, the implementation of new energy is imperative. As early as last September, ten ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Internationalization of Strategic Emerging Industries," and New Energy Vehicles is one of its key industries. Judging from the government’s current attitude, commercial new energy vehicles have always been a key development direction. The planning of new energy vehicles will bring a small reform to the commercial vehicle market and promote the development of the commercial vehicle market.
At present, under the trend of economic globalization, it is increasingly difficult for the Chinese economy to escape from the global economic environment and to perform its own business. As a pillar industry that promotes China’s economic growth, the automobile prosperity index is in line with China’s economy, and commercial vehicles are a branch of the automobile. Naturally, its sales status is closely related to China's economic situation. From this perspective, combined with the background of the global economic situation in 2011, it is not surprising that the Chinese commercial vehicle market has returned steadily from high-speed growth. However, we do not agree with the pessimistic forecast for the commercial vehicle market this year. After all, from the macroeconomic point of view, in the recently released 2012 global outlook report, the forecasting institutions still believe that the global economy is expected to maintain relatively stable growth, and support global growth. The biggest force is still the emerging market headed by China. UBS, Deutsche Bank and other major banks generally expect that China’s economy is expected to achieve a “soft landing†this year. The annual growth will be around 8%. The domestic economic environment determines the growth base of the automotive market and the automotive industry. I think 12 years The commercial vehicle market will maintain stable growth. With the relaxation of policies, commercial vehicle sales may even rebound.
Second, the "new" and "old" wars are fierce
In 2012, the commercial vehicle industry will face a confrontation between the old and the new. A good market situation in previous years has caused many commercial vehicle companies to expand their production capacity. The sales situation in 2011 was not satisfactory. The inventory pressure of commercial vehicles has suddenly increased, and the excessive reserve of automobiles is facing jokes. What is particularly important is that the implementation of the National IV standard has made the sales of commercial vehicles in inventory more difficult. At the beginning of the 12th year, the new car was on the line and the old car refused to give way. This contradiction made the commercial vehicle industry more helpless.
Third, the potential school bus market
Last year, school buses suffered frequent accidents and a bloody accident caused the government departments to focus on the safety of school buses. There are eight chapters and fifty-nine articles in the "Policy Safety Regulations for Public Schools (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)" that have been issued. , Detailed regulations were provided for schools and school bus service providers, school bus licenses, school bus drivers, school bus traffic safety, school bus ride safety, and legal responsibilities. Among them, the school bus shall not be overloaded for any reason; and it has a number of "privileges" for the road, including the bus lanes that can be used to drive, the school bus to park the students on the road, and the rear vehicles should be parked and waiting. It is reported that relevant departments will officially issue the "School Safety Regulations" this year to give rights and responsibilities to school buses and school bus related departments.
According to statistics, the number of primary and secondary school students in China is about 230 million. According to the current analysis of the proportion of urban and rural students in China and the proportion of family vehicles, approximately 15% of students need to be school buses. If the average is 35 seats per vehicle, roughly 1 million can be estimated. There are only 100,000 school buses of the school bus fleet, and only about 10,000 cars meet the standards. This means that once the School Bus Safety Regulations are promulgated, the compulsory purchase of school buses in all localities amounts to a potential market of 400 billion yuan. This is undoubtedly a disaster for the passenger car manufacturers that are in the process of adjustment.
Fourth, the car prices continue to decline
The data released by the National Development and Reform Commission price monitoring center recently showed that the prices of commercial vehicles fell for the second consecutive month in November, falling by 0.20% from the previous month and 0.20% from the same period of last year. From the market point of view, 11 car prices have been maintaining a steady decline, which will also be the overall trend of car prices in the coming year. Under the environment of overcapacity and contradictions in production and sales, the overall price of vehicles will decline.
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