According to the statistics of the business community petrochemical 100 weathervane, in the past 2010, petrochemical chemical products to increase, and the product increase more concentrated in 15-30%. Looking back at the price trend of chemical products in 2010, a number of chemical products prices saw no small increase in the first quarter, but almost all of them showed corrections in the second quarter. Many of them returned to the bottom. Affected by energy conservation and emission reduction, the prices of basic chemical products rose collectively in August, accelerated in September, and promoted the start of the basic chemical sector in September.
In particular, it is worth noting that both the crude oil in the upstream of the industrial chain and the engineering plastics and fine chemical products in the downstream of the industrial chain have great commonalities in the market performance in the second half of 2009 and 2010. As well as the strong prices of energy, chemicals, and plastics in all sectors, the entire petrochemical industry is rising.
“If it is explained from the perspective of supply and demand, it may not be explained.†Liang Bin, an analyst at CSC Chemical Industry, believes that product price movements are mainly affected by supply and demand, but for the chemical industry, due to large-scale capacity deployment, most Chemical industry sub-sectors have overcapacity. According to this logic, prices of chemical products are unlikely to improve. However, prices of chemical products have fluctuated sharply in 2010, and prices of many products have reached record highs.
Liu Xintian, editor-in-chief of China National Chemical Network Information Group, believes that the comprehensive rise in 2010, if combined with the performance of the petrochemical market in 2009, fully demonstrated that the petrochemical industry entered a new round of economic cycle. The reason is that the impact of the global economic crisis has gradually subsided, and the external environment of the petrochemical chemical market has become more clear, and the market “recovery†of nearly 18 months can never be simply understood as a “bounce†or “recallâ€. It should be the front end and the ascent phase of the new round of the cycle.
“The petrochemical chemical market in 2011 is still at a rising stage from the current point of view.†Liu Xintian believes that international crude oil, such as power generation, will still bring greater momentum to the petrochemical chemical market. If crude oil weakens in the second half of the year, it does not rule out that the petrochemical chemical market will enter the consolidation stage in advance.
Undoubtedly, the global economy continues to turn for the better, becoming an important driving force for rising prices of chemical products led by oil prices. Nanhua futures analyst Zhang Yiwei believes that, more importantly, the US economy will lead to an increase in the exchange rate of the US dollar against major currencies, which in turn will suppress the rise in prices of commodities such as oil. However, the price of oil in 2010 has seriously underperformed commodities, so it is mainly driven by fundamentals. Therefore, if the economic recovery is good and it can be implemented gradually, it will be good for oil.
Fu Peng, a senior strategic analyst at Galaxy Futures, believes that crude oil prices in 2011 are expected to shift to 90 US dollars per barrel. The rise in the price of oil directly led to a significant increase in the cost of ethylene PVC, which has driven up the price of PVC. This calcium carbide method will indirectly benefit from the rise in oil prices, under normal circumstances, the international crude oil price of ethylene and calcium carbide method of profit point is about 70 US dollars per barrel, is expected in the future if the oil price continues to attack, calcium carbide method PVC production companies will also Benefit more.
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