2012 wind power industry tightening urgently needed transformation

Looking back at wind power this year, there is a good deal of mixed feelings. At the same time, there were impressive results: In 2012, China's grid-connected wind power surpassed the United States for the first time, becoming the world's number one; on the one hand, it was the grim reality of “discarding the wind” and the problem of “consummation is not smooth” has not yet been solved.

After undergoing rapid growth, the wind power industry has entered a period of tightening adjustment. In 2012, wind power continued to tregate. The performance of wind power companies is not good. Whether they are upstream equipment manufacturers or wind power plants, they all have operational difficulties to varying degrees. However, it is not necessarily a bad thing for wind power to slow down the pace of adjustments and reshuffling, and the transformation and upgrading will accumulate strength for the arrival of the next round of opportunities.

2012 Wind Power Industry: Industry tightening transformation upgrade

The 18th National Congress of the People's Republic of China proposed to build "beautiful China" and create a great deal of space for new energy development. In December, the approval of wind power projects has been accelerated, and the quota system for renewable energy is currently being solicited. It is expected to be released soon. The wind continues to blow, can spring be far behind?

2012: The wind business hurts badly

In 2012, the wind power industry was not spared in the global economic slowdown and the widespread cold in many industries such as coal, steel, and photovoltaics. The inflection point appeared in the second half of 2011, and the rapid growth of wind power stopped short and started to enter a long cold winter.

The first to bear was the upstream wind power equipment manufacturer. The most direct impact of the market downturn was the reduction of orders. According to the third quarter 2012 results report, Sinovel Wind (5.29, -0.02, -0.38%) had a revenue of only 548 million yuan in the third quarter and a single-quarter loss of 280 million yuan, setting a quarterly revenue and net revenue. New low profit margin; Goldwind (5.40,-0.04,-0.74%) reported revenue of 2.46 billion yuan in the third quarter, net profit of negative 32.4438 million yuan, the first loss for the first quarter since 2008; Mingyang wind power revenue It dropped 58.6% to 787.8 million yuan, and net profit dropped 94.4% to 5.0219 million yuan. The performance of the three giants of wind power shows that wind power manufacturing has entered a period of low profit.

Many companies have had to lay off their production and lay off production, and they have to shrink strategically to weather the cold winter. Among them, Sinovel's three trapping "windfalls" attracted more attention. In early May, several graduates broke the news on Weibo, saying that they had just signed a "tripartite agreement" with Sinovel at the end of last year, but they suddenly faced dismissal; "Sweeping the contract" was not announced for a month. At the end of May, Sinovel Wind came again. The news of layoffs was rumored that the company will lay off 30 core research and development departments, other departments would like to cut 20%, and it may reach 60% in the future. On November 15, the employees of Sinovel Wind Company were “putted on holiday” for the third time. "Disguised layoffs" questioned. The series of layoffs of wind power predators once again reflected the operational difficulties of wind power companies.

What suffered was not only the Chinese wind power manufacturers. Foreign companies that had entered the Chinese market were also unfortunately "shot" and suffered heavy losses. According to reports, Spain’s Gome Wind Power, which has set up six factories in China, has dropped its sales in China by more than 50% in the first quarter of this year. The world’s largest wind power company, Denmark VESTAS, has closed one of the three wind power companies. Indian SUZLON also announced that it will sell. Its production department in China. The intensity of competition in the wind power market in China can be seen from the fact that the price of wind turbines continues to fall, forcing foreign-funded wind power companies to flee the Chinese market.

China’s wind power companies also encountered difficulties in foreign markets. The US Department of Commerce made a final ruling on December 18, local time, and determined that there were dumping and subsidy behaviors in China’s application-grade wind towers exported to the United States, and ruled that China’s application of wind towers. There is a dumping margin of 44.99%-70.63%. The industry is concerned that the European market will "follow the trend" to implement "double opposition" to China's wind power.

Another group injured in the cold wave of wind power is wind power companies. Affected by the slowdown in economic growth this year and the decline in electricity consumption in the entire society, the days of power companies have been hard. The problem of “discarding the wind” is even worse for them. If an incoming call cannot be made on the Internet, it means that there is no money to make, and the fans have to be idled. This is undoubtedly a heavy blow to wind power companies that have invested a lot in the early stages.

The "China Wind Power Development Report 2012" issued jointly by the International Environmental Protection Organization Greenpeace, the China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association's Renewable Energy Professional Committee and the Global Wind Energy Council pointed out that according to incomplete statistics, the proportion of China's wind power "rejected wind" exceeded 12 in 2011. %, equivalent to 3.3 million tons of standard coal loss. Wind power companies have lost more than 5 billion yuan due to wind curtailment, which accounts for about 50% of the profitability of the wind power industry. According to the statistics, in the first half of this year, the degree of "disposal of wind" in China's wind farms has eased compared to the same period of last year, but it is still not optimistic.

2012 is nearing the end and wind power is still continuing.

Discard the wind: This is a disease, get rule!

China's wind power has gone through 15 years of development in Europe and the United States in just 5 years. In 2012, the release of two statistical data was inspiring: In February, He Dexin, Chairman of the World Wind Energy Association and Chairman of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the Chinese Renewable Energy Society. According to the "2012 Tianjin Wind Power Industry Innovation Forum," China's newly installed wind power capacity in 2011 was close to 18 million kilowatts, with a total installed capacity of 65 million kilowatts. China is already the world's largest wind power equipment manufacturer and has the largest installed capacity of wind power; In August, the State Grid Corporation of China announced that as of June this year, China's grid-connected wind power reached 52.58 million kilowatts, surpassing the United States for the first time and becoming the largest in the world.

Needless to say, China has become a "big wind power country." However, after the rapid emergence of "great powers," problems continue to emerge, making the "wind power giant" and "wind power powerhouse" still have a certain distance.

The grid connection and poor consumption has become a bottleneck that has constrained the development of wind power for a long time. The State Grid believes that it is caused by the following factors:

First of all, due to the characteristics of "volatility and intermittency" of wind power, it is difficult to predict large and small, and it poses a certain threat to the security of power grids. Peak power supply is needed to "cut peaks and fill valleys." However, the power supply structure in the “Three North” region where wind is concentrated in China is single and lacks the role of “peak adjustment”.

Secondly, the planning of wind power and power grids is inconsistent. China's wind resources are concentrated and large-scale, and they are far away from load centers, and there is a limited market for local consumption. The construction period of power grid projects is much longer than that of wind power plants. In recent years, the rapid development of wind power in China has made it difficult to keep up with the construction of many regional power grids.

In this regard, Zhang Guobao, director of the National Energy Commission's expert advisory committee, stated that the problems encountered by wind power are not the rapid development of wind power itself, but grid companies are dragging their feet. "If our power grid is strong, then this little bit of electricity will soon be wiped out in the country. There will be no fluctuations or impacts. None of these problems will exist." He pointed out: First, "Wind power is not a premium power source." It is a misunderstanding to say that it can only occupy a proportion of less than 10% in the power grid, otherwise it will affect the security of the power grid. It is also a pretext for some people who are not actively accepting wind power; Second, the export of wind power is kidnapped by the power grid planning and sent out. The construction of electric transmission lines is in a stagnant state.

According to reports, in 2008, wind power companies in the country lost about 296 million kWh of electricity due to power grid curtailment, while in 2011 they had exceeded 1.5 billion kWh, accounting for about 12% of total wind power generation. Among them, the accumulated power of the five major power generation groups accounted for more than 90% of the total amount of winds.

The blind expansion of wind power in China led to overcapacity, which was considered to be the culprit in the current operational difficulties of wind power equipment companies. In 2005, the launch of a series of “good policies” led local governments and enterprises to work in tandem. According to public data, the current domestic wind power industry capacity is estimated to be between 30 GW and 35 GW, and the overcapacity rate is above 50. In order to curb the “barbaric growth” of wind power, the National Energy Administration issued documents several times last year requiring all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities to strictly implement wind power project approval plans and not to approve unscheduled wind power projects without authorization. In areas where wind power has exceeded 20% of wind, no new wind power project can be arranged in principle. Affected by the wind power tightening policy, China's wind power industry has entered an adjustment period.

In summary, the industry will target the “blind expansion of wind power” and “the limited power grid companies.” In any case, "discard the wind", this is a disease, get rule!

The wind continues to blow: Where is the next opportunity?

As a clean and renewable energy source, wind power has always been high hopes. In China, with the rapid development of wind power industry, wind power has become the third largest power source after thermal power and hydropower.

Li Junfeng, chairman of the China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association’s Renewable Energy Professional Committee, believes that wind energy is the cleanest energy with the most mature technologies and the most promising development prospects. Large-scale development and utilization of wind energy can not only meet energy needs, but also help China gradually get rid of the water crisis, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions caused by coal combustion.

The report of the 18th National Congress of the People's Republic of China stated that we must put ecological civilization construction in a prominent position and strive to build beautiful China. The proposal of this strategy creates a lot of space for the development of new energy, and wind power will welcome a new round of opportunities.

In December, the approval of wind power projects was accelerated. On the 18th, the National Energy Administration issued several documents, including the "Notice on Supplementing the "Twelfth Five-Year" Wind Power Approval Scheme for Some Provinces and Autonomous Regions, and the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" Wind Power Second Batch Approval Project for Xinjiang and Yunnan. According to China Securities Journal, the 16 wind power projects approved this time have installed more than 8.52 million kilowatts; and since the beginning of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the total installed capacity of wind power projects approved by the Energy Bureau has exceeded 53 million kilowatts.

On the 20th, the National Development and Reform Commission approved four wind power projects, which are located in Jiuquan, Gansu, Baotou, Damo, Datang, Chifeng and Hami, Xinjiang, with a total investment of approximately 57.2 billion yuan and a total installed capacity of approximately 6.8 million kilowatts. The approval of the new wind power project is conducive to boosting domestic demand and increasing orders for wind power equipment, creating opportunities for wind power companies.

In addition, the promulgation of the renewable energy quota system will effectively solve the “power cuts” problem and promote full-scale wind power purchases. Grid companies and local energy authorities will make mandatory commitments for renewable energy (except water) power generation quotas. According to reports, the "Measures for the Administration of Renewable Energy Power Quotas (Draft)" has been finalized in May this year and is expected to be released soon.