In-Depth Analysis: Heavy Trucking IV Standard Upgrades Do Not Become a Show

The heavy truck IV standard that was originally scheduled to be implemented in January 2012 has been postponed again. The author is well aware of the great price paid by mainstream truck companies for the “National IV”, but now there is a feeling of being cheated. In the case where domestic oil products and other factors are difficult to achieve, this "beautiful show" that does not suit China's national conditions not only imposes a heavy burden on car companies, but also passes this "heavy burden" back to consumers.

According to the author's understanding, each update of the emission standards in developed automobile countries not only requires that the engine's fuel technology be adapted to it, but also requires that the engine oil used in the market be upgraded. In each domestic emission standard update, the main progress is The engine, the increase of oil products is very small. At present, all domestic engine manufacturers have basically mastered the manufacture of engine technology that meets national IV, national V, or even higher emission standards. However, the oil products of the current market oil can only meet the requirements of State I, State II, and some countries III. Engine requirements. For the National IV engine, this is still far from the market requirements. This situation is doomed, regardless of how to advocate national IV emission standards, it is just an empty talk.

The promotion of State III to State IV does not require the modification of the EFI system, as it does in State II or State III. The National IV standard involves the overall improvement of the entire engine technology. At present, the core technology is still monopolized by foreign companies. If it is imperative to implement the National IV standard, domestic enterprises can only rely on imports. It will be the foreign companies that have benefited from the joint venture in China. The author believes that once national IV standards are implemented on a large scale nationwide, the following situations may occur:

First, oil prices rose sharply. Vigorously promoting the supply of refined oil for IV vehicles and improving the environmental quality of oil products can reduce the emission of pollutants from motor vehicles that use IV vehicle oil. Taking into account the process and cost of refined oil, after the implementation of IV oil, refined oil prices will have a substantial increase, and it is forecast that it will be about one dollar higher than the original price per litre.

Second, the car price will rise. The first step brought by the upgrade of emission standards is the increase in cost. For SCR models, due to an exhaust gas after-treatment system, the cost of car purchases will increase substantially. The price of State IV cars will be 20,000 to 30,000 yuan higher than that of State III cars. yuan. As the engine uses more sophisticated controls, the fuel quality requirements are also higher, and the additional cost of increased usage costs is the need to periodically add the price of the urea solution. In the absence of urea, the vehicle will not be able to operate normally, so it is necessary to establish enough urea stations like gas stations. However, there are almost no such urea stations and related supporting facilities in China. If national standards IV are to be vigorously promoted, the state will need to invest. A lot of money was spent on the construction of urea stations.

As the implementation of the National IV standard will lead to an increase in the cost of purchase and use, it may become the trigger for industry reshuffle. From the experience of the replacement of State II oil to State III oil, the cost of oil price increase and the environmental protection cost will all be borne by consumers. It is estimated that local governments at all levels will not subsidize direct and indirect consumers.

Third, "Fake Country IV" will prevail. "There are strategies under the policy," because the heavy truck manufacturers some non-mainstream manufacturers of technology can not meet the national IV standards, it is likely to lead to the prevalence of false country IV, the implementation of such a national standard is destined to surface. In addition, off-site cards will be popular, and commercial vehicles that have not reached the national IV standard will be rushed to remote places other than country IV that has not yet been implemented, and will then be used in areas where national IV standards have already been implemented.

Fourth, the situation of independent brands is grim. From the leap of the State III to the State IV standard, the lack of independent brands on the technical level is a major concern for the entire market. Although domestic brands have their own National IV products, only a few joint venture car brands have mastered the core technologies. More independent brands rely on outsourcing technologies to implement their own product strategies, and are therefore subject to heavy development. On the road leading to the National IV, there will be brands that are left behind due to technical bottlenecks.