As the market demand for LED lighting terminals suddenly broke out at the beginning of the year, the general capacity utilization rate of lighting companies is close to saturation. At the same time, it has also driven the rapid increase in capacity utilization of the chip and package links in the middle and upper reaches.
According to the latest report, the overall output value of the LED industry will increase by about 20 in the fourth quarter of this year, and the annual output value of LED indoor lighting will increase by 110% compared with last year. It is expected that next year, although the LED indoor lighting output base is increasing year by year, the output value growth rate Will remain at around 60.
At the 2nd CEO Conference of the G20-LED Summit held in Guangzhou on November 25th, the CEOs of the conference generally believed that in the upstream chip equipment field, the market competition gradually shifted from the past price competition to performance and technology competition. The mid-stream packaging field has been affected by the continuous decline in device prices in recent years, and the gross profit margin of most domestic packaging manufacturers is in a downward channel. Innovations in new packaging processes, new materials and new technologies will be the main factors driving the packaging industry to gradually increase gross margin. Downstream has begun to usher in the opportunity for rapid penetration of the indoor lighting market.
Specifically, in the field of upstream chip equipment, as competition begins to shift from price to technology, for enterprises, new processes and differentiated equipment positioning will become the main trend of market differentiation in the equipment sector.
Although the capacity utilization rate of most companies in the midstream package is close to and exceeds the best level in history, the gross profit margin of most domestic packaging manufacturers is in a downward channel due to the continuous decline in device prices in recent years.
In the downstream lighting application field, with the further improvement of LED lighting performance indicators and the continuous decline in the prices of major raw materials, components and accessories, the market competitiveness of LED functional lighting applications has gradually increased from the replacement of incandescent lamps to the replacement of fluorescent lamps. There is a huge opportunity for the rapid increase in the penetration rate of the indoor lighting market.
The data shows that in 2012, the output value of indoor lighting reached more than 30 billion yuan, an increase of 80% over the same period of last year. During the three years from 2010 to 2013, the price of LED indoor lighting products dropped by more than 20.
In fact, the company's LED lighting performance growth in 2013 mainly came from engineering projects. In 2014, the growth of LED lighting market demand will accelerate. The main potential markets come from three aspects: First, the growth rate of engineering and commercial lighting still maintains a high level. In particular, the EMC energy-saving retrofit market in Shangzhao has grown rapidly; secondly, some of the subdivided functional lighting categories in home lighting will be the first to accelerate the popularization and replacement, such as kitchen lights and ceiling lamps. Third, the competition in the light source market will become increasingly fierce next year, and prices will still drop sharply and basically reach the price level of ordinary energy-saving fluorescent lamps, and the market penetration rate will accelerate.
Although the increase in revenue does not increase profits, although the start of demand has driven the middle and lower reaches of the industry, from the financial data of LED listed companies, the industry as a whole has fallen into a dilemma of increasing revenues.
Statistics show that the 20 listed companies in the Shenwan LED industry achieved a total operating income of 14.195 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 20 compared with the 11.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters of last year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 1.687 billion yuan. Compared with the 1.59 billion yuan in the first three quarters of last year, the increase was 6. Overall, the listed companies in the LED sector had lower net profit growth in the first three quarters than the revenue growth. Overall, the reason for the above situation is that the industry price war, the increase in the cost and the reduction of government subsidies are important reasons for the increase in revenue of LED companies.
In terms of Dongguan Qinshang Optoelectronics, the company's revenue for the first three quarters was 802 million yuan, a substantial increase of 35.31 over the same period of the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 88 million yuan, down 4.73 over the same period of the previous year. Guangzhou Hongli Optoelectronics first three quarters With revenue growth of 24.39, net profit fell by 18.61.
For the above-mentioned dilemma, Liu Jun, deputy secretary-general of the Guangdong Lighting Association, analyzed the Southern Reporter's report that the package of the upstream chip and the middle reaches have been good this year, and the entire downstream application days are more difficult. On the one hand, because of the vicious price competition in the industry, the profit is thinner, the upstream and middle reaches are still good, the downstream is particularly obvious, and the price will be lowered with the increase of technology. In the process of competing for the whole market, some companies spend huge resources to build channels. In the short term, it is difficult to be effective. The above three reasons lead to a significant increase in revenue but a decline in net profit.
In response to the strategy, Li Guoping, chairman of Guangzhou Hongli Optoelectronics, said that he can only continue to invest money, purchase and optimize equipment, gain scale advantage and reduce overall cost, and obtain better profits. Zhu Bingzhong, vice president of Dongguan Qinshang Optoelectronics, told the Southern Reporter that he will continue to strengthen the project, and in addition to working on capital operation, looking for opportunities for integration in the industry.
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