Joint conference: pessimistic forecast that auto market sales will drop by more than 10% year-on-year this year

There is a new perspective on the trend of the auto market in 2011. Different from the previous forecast by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and other agencies, the slowdown in growth is more pessimistic. Yesterday, the passenger vehicle data research institute passenger vehicle association (hereinafter referred to as the "Crossing Conference") stated at the "December 2010 Automotive Market Information Symposium" that the domestic automobile sales in 2011 may show a negative growth of more than 10%. .

"The first year of negative growth following the withdrawal of the policy is normal, and positive growth is abnormal. We must accept this reality and future low growth. Otherwise, we may have business decision-making mistakes," said Rao Da, Secretary General of the CLUCC.

The report pointed out that the performance of different models in different market segments in 2011 will be different. MPVs, SUVs and imported cars are not affected by the introduction of preferential policies and are expected to grow slightly in 2011. Small-displacement cars and mini-vehicles may have negative growth due to cancellation of preferential policies, resulting in a 2 million car sales reduction this year. In 2009 and 2010, two years of advance consumption, the early release of auto purchasing power will reduce sales by 800,000 to 1 million vehicles this year.

In addition, the continuous rise in oil prices, the deceleration of the national economy, the reduction in the production of official vehicles, and the purchase restriction policies implemented by major cities to ease traffic pressures, the increase in the tax revenues of vehicles and boats is also an unfavorable factor in the auto market, which will lead to a decrease in car sales.

Taking into account the effect of the policy cancellation on the stimulating consumption generated in the fourth quarter of 2010, the C-FIT expects negative growth in the first and fourth quarters of 2011.

However, Rao Da also pointed out that short-term negative growth is conducive to corporate mergers and reorganizations and industrial restructuring. Fierce competition is conducive to accelerating the quality of automotive technology, but also conducive to improving the level of business management.

According to data released by the CLUCC on the same day, domestic sales of passenger cars in 2010 were 13,319,900, an increase of 30.5% year-on-year. The largest increases were SUV and MPV products, which were 59.1% and 45.4%, respectively. The growth rate of passenger car products was lower than that of passenger vehicles as a whole, which was 23.6%.