The hard-fought Greek aid agreement was finally reached on the 21st, but the EU still demanded that the Greek debt ratio be reduced to 120%. Greece and private creditors need to negotiate further to revise the results achieved before. But in any case, this news has an important boosting support for the whole period of the 21 st period. In fact, the trend of the broader market on the 21st shows a wave of twists and turns under the influence of the negotiations. When the morning started, because of the good expectations of the talks, the broader market was generally up. At around ten o’clock, the news could not be reached and it was once again plunging; and finally came the definite news that the agreement had been reached and the disk was pulled again. l. It's nothing but a big ups and downs. The natural rubber in this favorable, the price has also risen, the main contract 1205 closed at 28910, up 660 points.
Another important factor supporting the firming of rubber prices in recent days is the continuous drought in Yunnan. Natural rubber trees have certain requirements for the growth environment and climatic conditions. Only with sufficient water can the rubber be successfully produced. As an important production area that accounts for 35% of China's natural rubber production, Yunnan has been dry for three consecutive years. News reports previously reported that most of the reservoirs in China have been depleted. If the late rainfall can not keep up, it will have an important impact on the production of plastic in Yunnan. In fact, Yunnan traders are currently reluctant to sell and the market is scarce.
However, under the influence of these bullish factors, whether or not the price of rubber can be stabilized and substantially attacked, we still need to be cautious because negative factors do not show weakness, such as bones and throat in the throat, stuck in the rubber price, and curbing its sharp rise. .
According to a report from the China Rubber Industry Association, the pressure on the rubber industry's exports in 2012 will increase, and it is expected that the growth rate of exports will continue to decline this year in 2012, and the increase in the export volume of main products tires will continue to fall. In the U.S. market, the implementation of the China Tyre Special Protection Case that began in 2009 may be postponed. Even if it is not postponed, a new round of trade protection policies will be introduced soon. At present, the general operating rate of the tire industry is low, and manufacturers are not willing to purchase, with the use of the purchase, the entire downstream demand was light.
In addition, the process of destocking high stocks represented by the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is slow, and the financial mortgage period will come in March, which will surely suppress a new round of rubber prices.
Based on the above considerations, rubber in the short-term fear of maintaining high consolidation, concerned about the 28000-30000 operating range. The real out of the trend in the future should be in the middle or late March.
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