Stabilizing commercial vehicle performance is expected to bottom out


With the passage of time into November, commercial vehicle companies listed on the domestic market have announced the third quarterly communique. Due to the weakening of the macroeconomic situation and the sluggish market demand, the operating conditions of China's commercial vehicle listed companies in the third quarter are still not optimistic, but there has been a trend of stabilization and recovery, but each company's performance has been mixed.


Heavy trucks lead the way


According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September this year, China's commercial vehicle production was 308,100, a 12.89% increase from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 5.78%; sales of 301,800 units were up 9.21% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.59%, of which the decline in heavy truck sales remained. Very large, affecting the performance of listed companies. The communique of a commercial vehicle listed company confirms this.


China National Heavy Duty Truck announced on the evening of October 28 that the company reported a loss of 16.9084 million yuan in the third quarter and operating income of 4.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.52%. However, compared with the first three quarters of the performance, this drop has been greatly narrowed. According to the announcement, during the first three quarters of this year, China’s mid-term net profit was 22,392,100 yuan, down 94.15% year-on-year, and operating income was 14.939 billion yuan, down 27.99% year-on-year. Affected by the state's macro-control, the growth rate of the heavy-duty truck industry has slowed down, and the company's sales volume has decreased as a result of a year-on-year decline. It is expected that the profit for 2012 will be 181 million yuan. In the same period of last year, the company earned 362 million yuan.


JAC's revenue in the first three quarters of the previous year decreased by 13.0% year-on-year to 21.14 billion yuan, and its net profit decreased by 29.5% year-on-year to 404 million yuan. In the third quarter, the company achieved a net profit of 88.68 million yuan, an increase of 95.1% year-on-year and a decrease of 58.2% from the previous quarter. Earnings per share of 0.07 yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 95.1%, a decline of 58.2%. The significant increase in the 3Q11 results was mainly due to the narrowing decline in the sales volume of the company, the year-on-year growth in the sales volume of MPVs and light trucks, and benefiting from the drop in raw material prices, the company's gross profit margin improved significantly. In addition, the company’s sales expenses increased slightly by 1.3% from the same period of last year. Affected by the reduction in sales scale, the sales expense ratio increased by 0.8% over the same period of last year. The company’s management fee rate increased by 1.4% compared with the same period of last year, which was mainly due to the dramatic increase in research and development expenses.


Fukuda's medium- and heavy-duty truck business has experienced certain fluctuations due to the reduction in revenues from the Auman joint venture and the downturn in the heavy truck market.


Valin Xingma's operating income in the third quarter was 1.023 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.18%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company owners was 28 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 71.70%. In the first quarter of this year, the company achieved operating income of 1.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 49.60%. The decline in the third quarter has been greatly reduced.


Strong passenger coach Hengqiang


Compared with the truck industry, the passenger bus industry in China has maintained a slight growth this year, but sales have declined slightly in September. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, 37,300 buses and 37,500 vehicles were sold and sold, down 0.25% and 1.35% month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 0.79% and 2.50%. Since February this year, production and sales have declined for the first time since the beginning of the year. Although the sales volume of the industry has increased slightly, the adjustment structures adopted by different companies have achieved certain results. In particular, “one pass and three dragons” have shown more robust growth.


Yutong Bus's single quarter gross profit margin reached 19.19% in the third quarter, which was a year-on-year increase of nearly 2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.09%. This was mainly due to the company's product mix adjustment this year and the continued decline in the prices of raw materials such as steel. From January to September, the company's bus sales increased by 28.01% year-on-year, far higher than the company's overall sales growth of 11.28%. In the third quarter, the company's expense rate was 9.40%, which was a decrease of 0.82% compared with the previous period. The main reason was that the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.14% compared with the previous period, which ensured the continuous increase of the company's profitability. In the first three quarters of this year, Yutong Bus achieved a total operating revenue of 13.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.49%, a total profit of 1.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.36%, and profits accounted for more than half of the industry's total profit.


On October 26th, the third quarterly report released by Golden Dragon Motors of Daikinlong, Suzhou Jinlong and Xiamen Golden Brigade showed that the company achieved total operating income of 5.047 billion yuan in the third quarter, which was slightly lower than the same period of last year, but achieved attributable to the shareholders of the listed company. The net profit was 8,294,100 yuan, an increase of 100.06% year-on-year. The main reasons are: first, the gross profit rate increased by 1.46% year-on-year; second, the subsidiary Suzhou Jinlong Company included 65.532 million yuan of compensation income for demolition in the Huqiu plant area in the current period. According to the shareholding ratio, the listed company increased its net profit by 2005.50 million yuan. In addition, Dajinlong's "Tech Dragon" marketing strategy and Suzhou Golden Dragon's adjustment of product structure have also enhanced the company's sales and profitability.


Ankai’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the third quarter increased by 97.4% year-on-year. Other bus companies listed companies, although the company has a substantial increase in sales, but due to increased marketing costs and labor costs, have a significant impact on the company's profits.


"Winter" is about to disappear


The decline in the performance of truck company listed companies is mainly due to the reduction of infrastructure investment in China. Zhong Dong analyst Zheng Dong believes that the increase in the size and salary of some employees and the weak demand led to increased advertising and sales promotion, which is the main reason for the decline in the performance of truck-listed companies.


While corporate performance is declining, there are also some positive factors. Take Foton Motors as an example, Zheng Dong analyzed that the increase in the proportion of sales of heavy trucks in Foton Motor led to a structural improvement in the gross profit margin of the company. In the third quarter, sales of the company decreased by 4.2% year-on-year and 14.1% from the previous quarter to 134,000 vehicles. Among them, sales volume of medium and heavy trucks increased by 5.4% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 1.6% from the previous quarter, which was better than the industry average. With the proportion of sales in medium-to-heavy trucks increasing, the changes in product mix led to a 2.1% and 1.9% increase in gross margin and 1.9% to 11.0%, respectively, in the third quarter.


Analysts believe that with the effect of economic restructuring in China, the macroeconomic economy has seen signs of bottoming out in the third quarter, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and the non-manufacturing business activity index increased, and a series of railway construction investment starts. Urban rail transit projects have been approved. In some areas, the housing companies have increased their incentive to buy houses and build houses, and the demand for heavy trucks will be changed.


Zheng Dong believes that at present, the profit of Foton Motor is at the bottom of history. If the macro-economy improves, it will bring greater performance rebound for the company. At the same time, Daimler will continue to introduce mature products and technologies to the joint venture company in the next few years and push the company's heavy truck business to a new level. For Jianghuai Automobile, analysts believe that if the car to the countryside policy can be launched will bring greater flexibility to the company's performance. Hai Tong Securities analyst Feng Junqin believes that taking into account the heavy truck industry's market demand has been at the bottom, sales of Hualing heavy truck will gradually stabilize and pick up, especially with the increase in infrastructure projects, Valin's superior product cement mixer will have The large market space promotes the growth of the company's performance.


For the passenger car industry, although the industry maintains growth, the product structure changes greatly, and the sales of highway passenger cars will still be greatly affected, while tourist buses and school buses will continue to grow.



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