2012 at 0:10 on August, the domestic refined oil price increases ushered in after experiencing the "three-day losing streak," No. 93 gasoline prices in most cities across the country after a brief "6 yuan era" return again "7 The Yuan Dynasty." People in the industry believe that the current domestic diesel market is in the transition period from the off-season to the peak season, and there is ample supply of market resources. The “diesel shortage†is unlikely after the increase in oil prices; the overall trend of international oil prices in the second half of the year is mainly oscillating, but short-term. It may continue to go higher, not rule out that domestic oil prices will be raised again in September.
Oil prices return to the "7-year era"
The National Development and Reform Commission announced on the evening of the 9th that the price of refined oil was raised from 00:00 on the 10th, and the increase range was 390 yuan/ton for gasoline and 370 yuan/ton for diesel, which was converted to the retail price of gasoline No. 90 and No. 0 diesel (national average) per liter. Increase 0.29 yuan and 0.32 yuan.
The price adjustment is the second time in the year after the oil price has gone through two upward adjustments and three downward adjustments. The price adjustment has been in line with market expectations. Prior to this, many analysts forecasted the concentration to be 350-400 yuan/ton.
The 9th is the 22nd working day after the last adjustment date (July 11). Xinhua News Agency oil price system released data on the 9th, as of the 8th, the three places (Dubai, Brent, Xinta) crude oil moving average rate of change was 7.28%. According to the current "Petroleum Prices Management Measures (Trial)", when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted accordingly.
Since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have risen first and then dropped. Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have already “falled in three consecutive seriesâ€, and many cities’ 93rd gasoline prices have dropped below 6 yuan. Chen Qing, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said: "After this increase, most of the city's No. 93 gasoline will return to the '7-year era'."
"Diesel shortage" is unlikely
The traditional "Golden 9 Silver 10" season in the domestic oil market is approaching. The industry believes that the oil market will gradually shift from the off-season to the peak season, showing a steady upward trend. However, the supply of resources is still sufficient, and the "diesel shortage" is unlikely.
“The phenomenon of “diesel shortage†in China during the same period last year was mainly due to the fact that the refining losses were quite serious at the time, while chemical products were relatively profitable, and refineries chose to reduce refinery production correspondingly. In addition, the maintenance of some refineries in the first half of the year was not yet completed. Insufficient start-up and diesel supply were not enough to lead to a 'diesel shortage' phenomenon, said Liu Feng, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information Oil Refinery.
Li Hong, a product oil analyst at Business Club, believes that the increase in refined oil prices will stimulate the production enthusiasm of refineries to a certain extent. At the same time, as large-scale infrastructure projects, plant and mine utilization rate increase, the fishing season has passed, the three autumn farmers will also be busy, the market will gradually enter the peak season, the refinery operating rate will be significantly higher than the first half.
According to Zhuo Chuang's information analysis model, the refinery loss in the first half of the domestic refinery will be eased to a certain extent after the refinery price increase; after the price adjustment, the southern refinery's profit reduction rate will be 122% before the price adjustment.
“In the past few months, our company’s cash flow has already been negative. If the diesel is raised by 370 yuan/ton, the refining sector can basically turn a deficit into profits.†Wang Yuange, deputy manager of Maoming Petrochemical Sales Center, told reporters, “This year's chemical products are also added. The whole market is in the doldrums. In the second half of the year, we will adjust the production structure slightly. In addition to the production plan for chemical products, we will increase the production of gasoline and diesel and ensure the supply of refined oil.
Li Hong said that at present, the supply of market resources is still sufficient. After the increase in oil prices, the probability of “diesel shortage†appears to be small. Considering the arrival of the “Golden 9 Silver 10†market, the domestic refined oil market is expected to rise steadily.
September or welcome up again
Affected by factors such as the escalation of sanctions imposed by Iran and the United States on Iran, since late June, international crude oil prices have rebounded strongly and have come out of a wave of “V†market conditions. As of the 7th, Brent crude oil prices rebounded from the current round of the lowest 22.7%, New York crude oil rebound rate also reached 20.3%.
Industry insiders believe that factors such as the current global economic slowdown, record-breaking crude oil inventories, and US presidential elections are still bearish on rising crude oil prices, while the United States may launch QE3, US-Iranian relations, and other influences on rising crude oil prices. In addition, the overall development of the international oil price trend in the second half of the year will be mainly based on the overall trend. However, it may maintain the upward trend in the short-term. It is not ruled out that the domestic oil price will increase again in September.
Yao Daming, minister of the oil and gas division of the Guangdong Oil & Gas Merchants Association, believes that the European and American countries are still unable to shake off the haze of the debt crisis. The US general election will try to control the rise in oil prices in order to win votes, and the United States and Iraq will still be the main sawing oils. The transit channel Hormuz is also not threatened. “In this regard, the support for rising crude oil is not much. The prices of international crude oil and other commodities may be in a downtrend channel,†said Yao Daming. “But in the short-term, we may continue to make up for inflation in September.â€
Li Hong also said that if international crude oil continues to be boosted, it is not ruled out that the domestic refined oil market will continue to rise in September. Chen Qing is cautiously optimistic about the trend of oil prices in the second half of the year. "The average annual crude oil price is expected to be $85-90 for New York oil and $95-100 for Brent oil."
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