·Year of the car industry or face four contradictions

The horse rushed to the age of the year, and the golden sheep opened the spring to send it.
Last year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 23 million, ranking the first in the world for the sixth consecutive year, which is impressive. But behind the sleek transcripts, the car industry in 2015 will face four major contradictions.
Manufacturers' contradictions "prices are upside down" and "large-area losses" have become a lingering shadow in the field of automobile circulation.
According to the White Paper on the Relationship between Chinese Passenger Car Dealers and Suppliers issued by the Dealer Chamber of Commerce, most of the car dealers in 2014 were unable to make profits in the new car sales segment, and 80% of the dealers were in a loss state when they built the store.
In this context, car dealers who are unbearable and unbearable can only vote with their feet and resist collectively. Car dealers who have been in good condition for many years have finally risen up against each other and embraced the regiment, which is beyond the expectations of automakers. It is not profit but survival to trigger the pain point.
Under the protest, some dealers obtained subsidies as they wished. And more dealers who are trapped in business, also launched a non-violent non-cooperative campaign to recover from car manufacturers - do not give subsidies without mentioning the car.
The source of the intensification of vendor contradictions points to the unreasonable sales system of the long-established authorized operation.
The "Automobile Sales Management Measures" promulgated in 2005 regulates the market to a certain extent but also gives the manufacturers absolute right to speak in terms of brand authorization, store building standards and sales targets, which inevitably damages dealers' rights and interests. Business hands and feet.
Different from foreign auto manufacturers to sell production, dealers have no pressure, the domestic "production and sales" model drawbacks - in order to whitewash sales reports, manufacturers forcibly to the dealers warehouse, tying, but not care about distribution Business investment income.
The pressure of inventory is not only felt by some independent brands, joint-venture brand car dealers, but even the dealers of luxury car brands are no exception.
Under high inventory, dealers have tight cash flow and even a broken capital chain. In order to withdraw funds or fight for rebates, they have to cut prices to sell cars, forming a "price upside down", so that their operating pressure has increased sharply.
What is not good is that the slowdown in market growth has highlighted this contradiction and has intensified the tension between automakers and dealers.
Experience over the years has shown that the growth rate of the auto market is often 1.5 times the GDP growth rate, but in 2014, this conventional pre-judgment was broken. In 2014, GDP growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 7.4%, hitting a new low in the past 24 years, while car sales growth rate fell to the lowest point since 1990, far lower than the expected 10% at the beginning of the year. In 2014, vehicle production and sales volume were 2,372,290 and 23,419,900, respectively. The growth rate has dropped back to 7.26% and 6.86% from 15.8% and 13.9% in 2013.
In 2015, this pattern of low growth may not change much. According to the forecast of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, car sales in 2015 may increase by approximately 7% year-on-year.
The problem is that in 2014, many car dealers have already been on the ice, so how do they respond in 2015, where the market situation is still grim? !
There is no doubt that the possibility of more car dealers fighting up. However, it is not a long-term solution to expect to appease the insurgents in the field of automobile circulation through subsidies. Only by perfecting the legal system and reconstructing the equal relationship is the fundamental solution. Only by breaking the absolute monopoly of automakers, the phenomenon of overpressure that exceeds the capacity of auto dealers will cease to exist or at least not be so serious.
However, the new version of the “Automobile Sales Management Measures”, which is highly anticipated by auto dealers, did not arrive as scheduled in January 2015. Relevant persons revealed that the current “Measures” are mainly in the middle of 2015. Introduced.
This shows that the game of the indiscriminate interests continues, and the right to speak in the field of automobile circulation is fierce.
Contradiction between production and sales In the final analysis, the root cause of the contradiction between automobile manufacturers is closely related to the blind competition of manufacturers and the imbalance of automobile production and sales.
Automobile manufacturers who are so happy and too optimistic ignore the new normal of the auto market entering low-speed growth, formulate unreasonable production and sales plans, and expand production capacity.
When the car companies rushed to expand the production plan and caught up with the cold-selling car market, the market could not digest the release of too fast production capacity, the car dealers will inevitably become the reservoir of the car manufacturers to open the water, directly leading to The dealer inventory has been continuously enlarged, large sums of money have been ruthlessly occupied, business conditions have deteriorated, and even its survival crisis has arisen.
At present, the production capacity planning of many auto manufacturers is still triumphant, going straight to millions of vehicles. Industry experts warn that the risk of overcapacity in the automotive industry is increasing. In the context of up to two or three million new capacity, China's total vehicle production capacity in 2015 may reach 40 million, and the actual digestibility of the market may be only about 25 million. This means that a large amount of production capacity is in danger of being emptied, and the behavior of some brands of car manufacturers to the dealers may be intensified.
It is worth noting that the overcapacity of the car is only a structural over-capacity. In the past year, the multinational giants who have been eager for horseshoe disease are still gaining more sales and profit cakes in the slowing Chinese auto market, refreshing their previous records.
According to IHS Consulting, the capacity utilization rate of foreign brands in China is as high as 85% in 2014, while the capacity utilization rate of independent brands is only 65%.
In the face of chasing and blocking, independent brands still need to go slant. In the unfavorable situation that the “new demand” of large and medium-sized cities is good for joint venture brands, independent auto companies may wish to seize the third- and fourth-tier cities (participation, pictures, inquiry). Consumers’ rigid “new demand” is cost-effective and entry-level. Market opportunities with strong demand for vehicles, improve the quality of products and services. After obtaining a solid foundation for development, the product line will be expanded upwards to cater to the demand for vehicle consumption upgrades in large and medium-sized cities.
For all automakers, the gap between the ideal production capacity and the market reality is to lay down the impulse and body, and jointly formulate sales targets and product prices according to the market reality. This harmonious and win-win situation that can achieve healthy and sustainable development is obviously more appropriate. After all, all damages are lost.
Unblocking the contradictions The wind and the wind are nothing but a false alarm.
Recently, the relevant departments of Wuhan rumored that "the March 3 may officially limit the license" is purely false. The 4S car salesman who distributed the rumors and was also detained by the police for 10 days.
Wuhan, which has less than 1.9 million motor vehicles, is currently building a subway and viaduct, which has temporarily increased the congestion of some road sections. However, after the completion of these projects, the traffic situation will inevitably change. The creation of "cars" and the revitalization of the economy have also made it possible for Wuhan to be eager to introduce a "car purchase restriction" policy.
Although the rumors have been shattered, buying cars at an early age has become a consensus among many people across the country.
Because of the "mid-night chicken call" to the "even-night raid", the city that has suddenly imposed auto purchase restrictions and is unprepared has been increasing in recent years.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers pointed out that more than a year ago, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shijiazhuang, Chongqing, Qingdao, Wuhan and other eight cities had higher probability of implementing automobile purchase restriction policies. In a word, Tianjin and Shenzhen have entered the ranks of “car purchase limited” cities. At the end of 2014, Shenzhen introduced a car purchase restriction policy and entered the seventh city after Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou and Guiyang to implement the automobile purchase restriction policy. It can be expected that those central cities with car ownership of millions of vehicles and being trapped by congestion may follow in the footsteps and become the next city to purchase cars.
In the eyes of city managers, the introduction of "car purchase restrictions" is a helpless move, and it has its own difficulties. With the rapid increase in car ownership, automobile industry “side effects” such as traffic congestion and air pollution have become increasingly apparent, so it is only necessary to use the rigid and rigid means of car purchase and exclusion.
However, "automobile purchase restriction" is by no means a universal prescription for all diseases. In fact, after the mitigation effect was briefly emerged, the traffic congestion was still the same, and the policy did not reach the original intention.
The supply speed of urban roads and vehicle berths is far behind the speed of rapid release of automobile consumption demand, which is the main crux of modern automobile social diseases. We must know that although the average occupancy rate of thousands of people in China is less than 100, far less than the level of hundreds of vehicles in large and medium-sized cities in Europe and America, many large and medium-sized cities have suffered from many cars and roads.
A hard, one-size-fit block is not as good as a flexible combination. Only by serving the people's philosophy, advancing with the times, doing a good job in urban planning and construction, improving supporting infrastructure, introducing intelligent traffic management systems, improving the quality of public transport services, and rationally distributing resources for science, education, culture and health, can we welcome a new round of poetry. The arrival of the wave of socialization of automobiles, instead of treating new vehicles as a beast and a beast, will implement the “car purchase restriction”.
As far as the automobile industry itself is concerned, its industrial chain is long and its driving force is large, and it has played a major role in national economic activities in recent years. At a time when the pulling effect of real estate investment is weakening, it is more important as a car consumption to expand the domestic demand.
Analysts believe that due to factors such as property market adjustment, weaker investment growth and weak domestic demand growth, China's GDP growth rate in 2015 is likely to be lower than 2014, or will be around 7%.
If there is a city with "automobile purchase restrictions", it will only have a big negative impact on the already exhausted economy. Even if it is the car consumption that was released in advance before the "automobile purchase restriction", it will only let the car market stage a roller coaster-like market, so that some car dealers "have died of addiction", which is not conducive to the healthy development of the car market.
However, in the context of the downturn in the real estate market and the shrinking of land transfer income, local governments are inevitably generating the impulse to achieve revenue growth and congestion mitigation through the “car purchase restriction”.
In this regard, industry experts suggest that the tax collected in the car sales sector be changed from national tax to local tax, in order to increase the enthusiasm of local governments to sell cars, and to reduce the temptation to limit the car, especially the lottery that brings great economic benefits.
Contradictions between advance and retreat Smoke ring fog lock. The smog is deep and deep, and the streets and alleys are in the dust.
The smog documentary filmed by Chai Jing at his own expense - "Under the Dome" brought the audience a deep shock, and the consequences of pollution were shocking.
In fact, in recent years, the rising incidence and the alarming rate of cancer and mortality in some places have also confirmed the ravages of pollution and the helplessness of the people from another aspect.
In terms of automobile exhaust pollution, Chai Jing showed that diesel commercial vehicles accounted for the tail gas pollution of motor vehicles with detailed data and cases, and commercial vehicles had the phenomenon of emission mark fraud. The pollution caused by gasoline passenger cars is not as serious as some people think.
Commercial vehicle emission fraud is abhorrent, but inferior oil is even more hateful. It will make high-emission vehicles use no heroes, so better quality oils are expected. In the new year, the oil emirates need to change their appearances. When the international oil price goes down, buy more low-sulfur high-quality crude oil. The crude low-priced and high-sulfur imported crude oil of the past can only be seen as a cost-effective business. If it is included in environmental protection costs, it is not worth the candle.
In addition to reducing the harmful emissions of fuel vehicles through a wide range of timely supply of clean oil, it is worthwhile to vigorously promote low-emission or even zero-emission new energy vehicles. Furthermore, this is also an important way for auto manufacturers to respond to the country's increasingly stringent energy-saving goals. According to the third-stage passenger vehicle fuel consumption limit, the average fuel consumption of passenger cars produced in China will fall to 6.9 liters/100 kilometers by 2015, and will further drop to 5.0L/100Km by 2020.
Fortunately, the policy stacks, the market is getting hotter, and the new energy auto industry has gone through the extraordinary 2014.
In 2014, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 75,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 324%. Among them, pure electric vehicles sold 45,000 units, an increase of 208%; plug-in electric vehicles sold 30,000 units, an increase of 878%. Compared with the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China of 17,500 vehicles in 2013, and about eight buses, the new energy vehicles were promoted in 2014, exempting vehicle purchase tax, encouraging charging facilities, and conditionally releasing access licenses. Private consumption is gradually showing signs of warming.
The "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)" proposes that by 2015, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 500,000 units, and by 2020, more than 5 million units.
The subsidies have retreated and the sales volume has advanced. The new energy automobile industry has faced challenges in 2015. When the end of the year is over, will the “500,000 units” referred to in the plan be successfully implemented? In 2015, the national subsidies for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 10% on the basis of the 2013 standards, and local subsidies will be correspondingly reduced. Will the subsidy declining mechanism bring a big negative impact to the newly-started new energy vehicle market?
In the eyes of relevant experts, such concerns are superfluous. As the main energy market, the subsidies for pure electric passenger cars have dropped by 6,000 yuan at most, while the subsidies for the best plug-in hybrid vehicles in the market have only dropped by 3,500 yuan. The policy of "removing fire" is more moderate. It is estimated that its reverse effect is not large.
Ouyang Minggao, a professor at Tsinghua University and executive vice president of the China Electric Vehicles 100-member Council, pointed out that “2014 is the first year for new energy vehicles to enter the family. In the future, with the enrichment of infrastructure and the variety of vehicles, as well as policies and fuel consumption. With the continuous improvement of regulations, China will achieve the goal of cumulative sales of 500,000 electric vehicles in 2016.
In January 2015, China's new energy vehicles produced 6,599 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 5 times, of which 2108 vehicles were produced by pure electric passenger cars, up nearly 5 times year-on-year, and 2,278 plug-in hybrid passenger cars produced, a year-on-year increase. Nearly 7 times. Experts pointed out that according to the speed of this exhibition, the goal of China's new energy vehicle ownership of 5 million vehicles in 2020 may be achieved smoothly.
It is imperative to unify standards and accelerate the popularization of charging piles. The scene of the plug-in hybrid vehicle that received the enthusiastic response from the market but was immediately criticized shows that some plug-in hybrid vehicles are not plugged in. They are not in themselves, but the weak base charging facilities. The National Equipment Department released the new energy vehicle promotion and application demonstration city (group) supporting policies, and the progress of the supporting policies shows that as of the end of 2014, among the 39 cities (groups) of 39 cities (groups) included in the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, there are 33 70 cities (groups) have introduced supporting policies and measures for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. However, there are still six supporting cities in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia.
In the final analysis, the growth of the new energy vehicle industry will ultimately have to make the market mechanism play a decisive role, throwing away the subsidized crutches to move forward. In this context, the company relies on the government's strong support for the development of new energy vehicle industry, accelerates the upgrading and upgrading of products, launches models with better performance, and enhances the public's recognition and acceptance of new energy vehicles. The auto market will gradually become a real fire.
In any case, the above contradictions will not hinder the advancement of the automobile market. It is expected that in the new year, China’s automobile production and sales will successfully sprint 25 million vehicles, and it will be almost no suspense to continue to sit in the top spot in the world. Probability event.

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