On the 18th, BYD’s A-shares fell and H-shares fell by nearly 30%. The reason is still a mystery.
At the emergency telephone communication meeting held on the afternoon of the 18th, BYD denied many rumors such as the loss of the ruble exchange, the reduction of Buffett, and the chairman Wang Chuanfu (click to view the latest person news).
According to the Hong Kong stock announcement issued by BYD, the board of directors is not aware of the reasons for the stock price change.
The relevant person in charge of BYD said in an interview with the reporter of China Business News that there is no abnormal situation within the company. The reason for the abnormal stock price is still under investigation.
For a mainland rich man to make up the short position, resulting in a number of brokerages "Kamakura", eventually led to the domino effect dragged down the stock price rumors, the above-mentioned person in charge told this reporter, does not rule out this possibility, has commissioned a Hong Kong colleague to investigate This matter, there will be further news today.
Responding to the rumor of the plunge BYD shares (002594.SZ, 01011.HK) took the roller coaster yesterday. In the case of the A-share limit, its H-shares suffered a panic selling in the afternoon, which fell nearly 47%, and finally closed at 25.05 Hong Kong dollars, down 28.8%.
As the stock price plummeted and rumors began, BYD clarified several major rumors in the meeting yesterday afternoon.
The first is the impact of the ruble's plunge. When BYD plunged, it coincided with the recent collapse of the ruble, so it was reported that BYD suffered hundreds of millions of exchange losses in Russia. BYD clarified that sales to Russia are only a few hundred thousand dollars.
Our reporter reviewed the statistics of the European Business Association on the sales of self-owned cars in Russia from 2009 to July 2014. It is different from the sales of Lifan, Great Wall and Geely in Russia, which sold more than 20,000 vehicles a year. BYD has been in recent years. The Russian market is shrinking, with annual sales falling sharply from 2,630 in 2012 to 140 in 2013.
Sun Muzi, director of the automotive industry of Taisi (Beijing) Information Consulting Co., told this reporter that this should not be the cause of stock price volatility. Geely, which sold more to Russia, issued a profit warning on the 17th, saying that the devaluation of the ruble brought foreign exchange losses. This year's net profit will fall by about 50% year-on-year. Affected by this, Geely Automobile's share price fell 16.99% to close at 2.59 Hong Kong dollars on the same day, and fell 3.9% to HK$2.51 on the 18th. The decline was far from BYD's exaggeration.
Secondly, for the rumors of major investors to reduce their holdings, BYD said that after communicating with investors, they did not understand.
HKEx's equity disclosure data shows that there have been no major shareholders selling BYD recently, and Blackstone has increased its holdings of 700,000 shares and 983,000 shares on December 4 and 9, respectively, and the shareholding ratio of Hong Kong stocks reached 5.71%.
BYD also said that Buffett is unlikely to reduce his holdings and has recently conducted a communication.
Some private shareholders of Hong Kong stocks told this reporter that whether Buffett wants to sell BYD is currently unable to judge, but even if Buffett wants to sell, it is estimated that it is unlikely that it will be directly unloaded through the secondary market. When it comes to the bull market, it will find a block trade. However, the current downturn in Hong Kong stocks is not a good time to sell; when Buffett sold PetroChina in 2007, it was close to the middle and late stages of the bull market.
In response to rumors about the market's chairman, BYD clarified that Wang Chuanfu did not have an "fault". He still presided over the shareholders' meeting on the 17th and met with the staff on the 18th.
New energy vehicles are bad?
For yesterday's BYD share price plummeted, a brokerage broker in Beijing told this reporter that the new energy car was very hurt mainly because of the continuous plunge in international oil prices. Consumers do not need to buy new energy vehicles because of the sharp drop in oil prices. Even Tesla, which has been exhausted in the field of new energy vehicles, has fallen by 13.72% after the Thanksgiving holiday.
However, after the international oil price continued to fall sharply, on December 12, the Ministry of Finance issued a document saying that the refined oil consumption tax should be increased. GF Securities believes that the decline in the cost of oil is the logic behind the suppression of the theme of new energy vehicles, but the cost of use after tax increases, the logic of suppressing new energy vehicles has shattered. Behind the tax increase, the policy orientation reflected is still energy conservation and environmental protection. It can be reasonably expected that the increase in taxes will further expand the New Energy Supplementary Fund. If verified, the market will fully realize that the fall in oil prices will not only prevent the theme of new energy vehicles, but will be positive.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China's new energy vehicles produced 9,728 vehicles in November, an increase of nearly 70% from the previous month.
Since the beginning of this year, BYD has been the biggest winner of the country's multi-renew energy policy. In the first half of this year, BYD's new energy vehicle business realized revenue of 2.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12 times, accounting for 10.29% of the group's total revenue. BYD has said that it expects the company's car sales to explode in 2014, a tenfold increase compared to 2013.
In addition, a number of analysts have recently said that BYD's earnings are heavily dependent on the sale of pure electric buses to the government, as well as government subsidies for electric buses. It has been rumored that the government may cancel subsidies in this area; and plug-in hybrid vehicle subsidies. Recently, it has also been questioned. Some people have questioned that car owners use less electricity during actual use, which raises the discussion of whether the plug-in hybrid car is a new energy vehicle and calls for a revision of the subsidy policy.
BYD’s response to the call yesterday was that the policy was serious and continuous and could not be cancelled abruptly. The company did not hear this.
Auto expert Zhang Zhiyong (microblogging) told this reporter that it is not expected that the new energy policy will reduce subsidies. According to the current situation, the state is continuously encouraging the development of new energy vehicles. BYD is basically oriented, and Tang and Shang will be launched next year. Four oil-electric hybrid dual-mode vehicles, such as Song and Yuan, will accelerate in the new energy vehicle market. As for the traditional automobile industry, the current overall environment is not optimistic, and most other independent car companies are similar. This should not be caused by BYD. The reason for the stock price decline.
Is it not timely for the wealthy to make up the position?
Data show that yesterday's BYD A shares net outflow of 284 million yuan; H stock market value in a short two hours evaporated 9.2 billion Hong Kong dollars.
On the same day, the data of the Dragon and Tiger charts showed that BYD's A shares were affected by institutional funds. The seller's seats were sold by two institutions, respectively, at 6,736,700 yuan and 5,558,480,000 yuan. The buyer's seat also received two institutions to buy 37,774,800 yuan and 12.70 million yuan respectively. .
After the sharp fall of BYD H shares, the global express depth data closed, the Chinese brokers Qilu, CITIC, and BOC International sold the most; while Merrill Lynch, UBS and Deutsche Net were among the top three. Yesterday afternoon, CICC analysts suggested to copy the bottom of BYD.
There are market rumors that a mainland real estate real estate, love the BYD's rich, accumulated more than 100 million shares of the stock, but in view of BYD's stock price recently dropped from a high level, the rich did not make up the position in time, so the day was a number of brokers "Kamakura", the negative news formed a domino effect, dragging the stock down. The above-mentioned person in charge of BYD told this reporter that this possibility cannot be ruled out and there will be news as soon as possible.
"Do not rule out the possibility of BYD being short." Zhang Zhiyong said that BYD and Great Wall Motor have developed rapidly in recent years, and the stock price has been rising in the capital market. It is worth noting that this year, Great Wall Motor's share price plummeted due to the delay of the Haval H8 listing. In fact, there is not much problem from the fundamentals of Great Wall Motor. The stock price crash has a relatively large relationship with the capital level. Great Wall Motor and BYD's share price are higher than other car companies, leaving a lot of room for operation. From the situation of BYD's stock price collapse, it is also more related to the capital level.
Investment banker Wen Tianna told the "First Financial Daily" reporter that for the collapse of BYD Hong Kong stocks, whether there are problems in the Russian market, electric vehicle sales are not as expected, and large households sell off, it will make the market an excuse for panic selling, and the current news Undetermined, it has given some investors more short space; hedge funds have specifically attacked companies with excuses, and it is estimated that some funds will "explode" in the sluggish emerging markets in the near future, and they will soon be highly mobile. The market cashed in, and the Hong Kong stock market has been the role of a foreign hedge fund “cash machineâ€.
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