Since February 2011, the rubber price has entered a bear market for up to five years, with a cumulative drop of nearly 70%. From the perspective of the product price cycle, rubber prices are in the downward channel. At present, the inventory of natural rubber has decreased, and the contradiction between rubber supply and demand has eased. From the perspective of rubber costs, there is little room for price drop.
Liu Xintian, secretary-general of China Commodity Development Research Center, believes that the overall drop in natural rubber is not necessarily detrimental to the industry. Analyzing the characteristics of commodities shows that the decline of natural rubber in 2015 may be another overall integration of the natural rubber industry and is expected to become a "Later".
Why is rubber falling? For this, professionals think there are three reasons. First of all, from the perspective of the product price cycle, the current rubber price is in a downward path. From the Hujiao 1509 week k-line chart, we can see that rubber prices fell from 1996 to 2001; from 2001 to 2008 in the upward cycle, after the financial crisis broke down in 2008, the complex rose again. In 2011, rubber prices have entered the downward cycle since 2011. Therefore, due to the rubber price cycle, rubber may continue to decline and innovation is low.
Secondly, from the point of view of the product season, July-August is the peak season for rubber production both at home and abroad, and at the same time it is the traditional off-season seasonal demand. As a result, the overall demand for the rubber market is sluggish and prices continue to oscillate at the bottom.
Again, from the perspective of the industry chain and the industry as a whole, the major downstream rubber tires demand for rubber is in short supply. In recent years, the shrinking of auto sales has directly affected the demand for rubber, and the entire industry chain has entered a low state. It is understood that from the data released by the Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales in 2011 and 2012 were both lower than 5% year-on-year. Despite the fact that it picked up in 2013 and 2014, it was still in a downturn. In recent years, the downstream tire industry has been continuously affected by the friction of international trade. It has been judged by European and American as anti-dumping, which has a negative impact on the rubber tire industry chain.
Looking ahead to the rubber market, rubber prices will continue to fall in the later stages, but the decline is limited. First of all, from the inertia force of the product trend, the rubber price is at the beginning of the sixth wave in the big drop channel. From the trend point of view, the price will continue to decline, and from the perspective of the time span of the previous five waves, the downward trend will be at least Continue to the end of October and early November.
Secondly, from the current supply and demand of products, the current inventory of natural rubber has decreased, and the contradiction between rubber supply and demand has eased. It is understood that as of the end of July 2015, global natural rubber stocks fell from 2,063 tons at the end of 2014 to 1,845,000 tons.
Thirdly, from the perspective of the product industry chain, although there are internal and external problems in automobile tires, from the perspective of emerging markets and tire consumption, the growth of emerging automobile markets in India and factors such as the replacement of new tires will create new demand points for rubber. It also provides some support for rubber prices.
Finally, from the perspective of the cost of rubber, there is currently little room for rubber prices to fall. It is understood that at the end of 2014, the director of the Agricultural Science and Technology Extension Service Center of Qiongzhong County, Hainan Province, Xiao Xiaowen stated: “The current price of dry rubber is about 11,000 yuan/ton, while the production cost of private rubber is 8,000 yuan/ton, and that of agricultural land is 12,000 yuan/year. Ton, the current price of rubber has fallen below the cost of agricultural land. "This statement has been confirmed by Dong Jingjun, the director of Hainan rubber.
Liu Xintian, secretary-general of China Commodity Development Research Center, believes that China's natural rubber mainly depends on imports, and its foreign dependence is over 60%. In 2014, it depended on foreign investment as high as 80.0%. Now that domestic natural rubber prices have fallen, it is conducive to the integration of China's domestic natural rubber industry and increase domestic natural rubber self-sufficiency rate. In 2015, China's natural rubber self-sufficiency rate is expected to increase to 40%.
PET Pelletizing Machine is used to making pet pellets, it uses underwater strand cutting, Through extrusion, cutting and dry process, the waste bottle will become pellets. The pellets are widely used in plastic industry,like sheet, and profile production. From feeding system to final products,it can no waste material strand, and save the labour cost, more over super vacuum is adoted for our pet pelletizing machine, and pellets made by our extruder is with very low loss during production.
Pet Pelletizing Machine,pet granules machine,pet extruder machine granulators,pet bottle from crushing to pelletizing
zhangjiagang sevenstars machinery co.,ltd , https://www.sevenstars-machineries.com