International oil prices fell sharply at the end of last week after the International Energy Agency announced the release of strategic oil reserves. The chemical market as a whole showed a situation of rising or falling prices.
Data from major institutions showed that fertilizer prices continued to rise last week. Ammonium chloride and adipic acid were among the top gainers, while those with larger increases in the previous period were down.
According to data from GF Securities, among the seven first-level plate price indices tracked by the company, there are five kinds of price indexes that have risen compared with last week, and two kinds have fallen. Among them, the rising sector includes petrochemicals, fertilizers, polyurethanes, pesticides and plastics; the falling plates are two alkalis and chemical fibres.
Among them, the products with larger price increase include ammonium chloride and adipic acid, with the increase rate of 9.5% and 2.8% respectively. Prices for products with large price declines included vinyl acetate and butanone, which fell by -4.6% and -4.5% respectively.
The data of Industrial Securities also showed that the price of urea in the northern region of China continued to rise last week, with urea prices in the Northeast and Shandong regions rising by 11.1% and 7.1% respectively to RMB 2,700/ton and RMB 2,400/ton.
In this regard, analyst Zheng Fangshao said that at present, the northeastern region has entered the season of high-yield corn crops, and dealers are preparing less goods, which has caused staged tensions in the supply of urea in the north, which has become the main driving force for price increases.
"According to the driving of urea and downstream compound fertilizer, the price of ammonium chloride rose greatly last week. In addition, the spread of urea spread is also widening. In the short term, we can pay proper attention to two products, ammonium chloride and urea." GF Securities analyst Lu Bingfeng said.
It is worth noting that the recent reversal of crude oil prices means that the cost pressures have eased for chemicals. Zheng Fangyi proposed to pay attention to the follow-up effect of urea's implementation of off-season export tariffs and the price trend of international potash fertilizer prices in the third quarter. In addition, due to strong expectations for power curtailment in the eastern part of the country in the summer, production-intensive industries with high energy consumption in the region and integrated companies in the industry are also worthy of attention.
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