According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in November, China's manufacturing PMI was 51.7%, up 0.5% from the previous month, continuing the upward trend and rising to a two-year high; the non-manufacturing PMI was 54.7%, compared with the previous month. The increase of 0.7 percentage points, rising for three consecutive months, is the highest point since July 2014. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the Service Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained.
I. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index continues to rise
In November, the manufacturing PMI was 51.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, continuing the upward trend and rising to the two-year high, mainly showing four characteristics. The first is that production and market demand have picked up further, and companies’ willingness to purchase has increased. The production index and the new orders index were 53.9% and 53.2%, up 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month, both hitting a high this year. The purchase volume index was 52.9%, rising for two consecutive months. Second, the expansion of consumer goods manufacturing continues to accelerate. The PMI for consumer goods manufacturing industry was 53.2%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the PMI of the agricultural and non-staple food processing industry, food and wine beverage refined tea manufacturing industry, and automobile manufacturing industry were all above 53.0%, continuing the rapid expansion trend. Third, high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing have maintained steady and rapid growth. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industry was 53.2% and 52.5%, respectively, higher than the overall level of manufacturing by 1.5 and 0.8% respectively. Among them, PMIs in the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, computer communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries are all above 52.0%. Fourth, the import and export have improved. The new export orders index and import index were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, higher than the previous month, 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points, both rose above the critical point, and the high point for the year.
At the same time, there are still some difficulties in the production and operation of enterprises. First, the proportion of companies that reflect the rise in raw material prices and transportation costs exceeds 30%, which is the highest level in the past three years. Second, the recent large fluctuations in the exchange rate of the renminbi and the increase in the cost of imported raw materials have a major impact on computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries. Third, the production and operation status of small enterprises is still not as good as that of large and medium-sized enterprises. The PMI for small businesses was 47.4%, which was lower than the 0.9% in the previous month. It continued to fall in the contraction range, and the decline rate increased. The PMI of large and medium-sized companies was 53.4% ​​and 50.1%, respectively, up 0.9 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, both above the critical point.
Second, non-manufacturing business activity index continues to rise
In November, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and rising for three consecutive months. It was the highest point since July 2014 and continued to maintain stable and rapid growth.
The prosperity of the service industry rose steadily and continued to improve. The business activity index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, which was the year's high. Affected by the "double 11" promotion activities, the wholesale and retail, postal courier, loading, handling, and warehousing industries are active and the business volume has grown rapidly. With the acceleration of manufacturing expansion, the associated productive services industry achieved rapid growth. The business activity index was 61.1%, up 5.6 percentage points from the previous month. The industrial business activity index for railway transportation, water transportation, Internet and software information technology services, monetary and financial services, capital market services, insurance and other industries are all located in the high-range segment of 60.0% or above, showing a strong expansion trend. The demand for the service industry continued to improve. The new orders index was 51.2%, which was a 0.8% increase from the previous month and was above the critical point for three consecutive months.
The prosperity of the construction industry has fallen at a high level. As the winter climate gradually turned cold, the growth rate of construction industry experienced a seasonal decline. The business activity index was 60.4%, which was 1.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, but it was still in a higher economic range. From the market demand, the new orders index was 55.1%, which was 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month. The construction industry is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth.
I. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index continues to rise
In November, the manufacturing PMI was 51.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, continuing the upward trend and rising to the two-year high, mainly showing four characteristics. The first is that production and market demand have picked up further, and companies’ willingness to purchase has increased. The production index and the new orders index were 53.9% and 53.2%, up 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month, both hitting a high this year. The purchase volume index was 52.9%, rising for two consecutive months. Second, the expansion of consumer goods manufacturing continues to accelerate. The PMI for consumer goods manufacturing industry was 53.2%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the PMI of the agricultural and non-staple food processing industry, food and wine beverage refined tea manufacturing industry, and automobile manufacturing industry were all above 53.0%, continuing the rapid expansion trend. Third, high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing have maintained steady and rapid growth. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industry was 53.2% and 52.5%, respectively, higher than the overall level of manufacturing by 1.5 and 0.8% respectively. Among them, PMIs in the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, computer communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries are all above 52.0%. Fourth, the import and export have improved. The new export orders index and import index were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, higher than the previous month, 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points, both rose above the critical point, and the high point for the year.
At the same time, there are still some difficulties in the production and operation of enterprises. First, the proportion of companies that reflect the rise in raw material prices and transportation costs exceeds 30%, which is the highest level in the past three years. Second, the recent large fluctuations in the exchange rate of the renminbi and the increase in the cost of imported raw materials have a major impact on computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries. Third, the production and operation status of small enterprises is still not as good as that of large and medium-sized enterprises. The PMI for small businesses was 47.4%, which was lower than the 0.9% in the previous month. It continued to fall in the contraction range, and the decline rate increased. The PMI of large and medium-sized companies was 53.4% ​​and 50.1%, respectively, up 0.9 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, both above the critical point.
Second, non-manufacturing business activity index continues to rise
In November, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and rising for three consecutive months. It was the highest point since July 2014 and continued to maintain stable and rapid growth.
The prosperity of the service industry rose steadily and continued to improve. The business activity index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, which was the year's high. Affected by the "double 11" promotion activities, the wholesale and retail, postal courier, loading, handling, and warehousing industries are active and the business volume has grown rapidly. With the acceleration of manufacturing expansion, the associated productive services industry achieved rapid growth. The business activity index was 61.1%, up 5.6 percentage points from the previous month. The industrial business activity index for railway transportation, water transportation, Internet and software information technology services, monetary and financial services, capital market services, insurance and other industries are all located in the high-range segment of 60.0% or above, showing a strong expansion trend. The demand for the service industry continued to improve. The new orders index was 51.2%, which was a 0.8% increase from the previous month and was above the critical point for three consecutive months.
The prosperity of the construction industry has fallen at a high level. As the winter climate gradually turned cold, the growth rate of construction industry experienced a seasonal decline. The business activity index was 60.4%, which was 1.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, but it was still in a higher economic range. From the market demand, the new orders index was 55.1%, which was 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month. The construction industry is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth.
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