The depth of the industry's inventory continued to be high, and the terminal concessions increased. Recently, SINOMACH released the “Report on China's Imported Auto Market in the First Half of 2016†(hereinafter referred to as “Reportâ€), saying that in the first half of 2016, China's imported car market Continued supply and demand double-down situation, the industry inventory is still at a high level, the transaction price discount continues to increase, the brand, model, displacement structure continues to adjust. The data shows that in the first six months of this year, in the various market segments, the import auto market performance was sluggish, and the growth rate fell by 9.35%. The market continued its adjustment in 2015.
The number of imported cars fell for six consecutive quarters, and the supply and demand doubled down. The industry inventory depth reached 4.5 in June.
According to the "Report", in the first half of 2016, imports have fallen for six consecutive quarters. Since the first quarter of 2015, under the high inventory pressure, the import vehicle supply surface began to undergo a deep adjustment. The data shows that China imported 479,000 vehicles in January-June, down 8.4% year-on-year. Compared with the year of 2015, the decline was 24.2%, and the decline narrowed by 15.8 percentage points. Based on the destocking analysis between 2012 and 2013, the last round of inventory cycle lasted for three quarters. As the inventory depth of this round reaches the historical peak, it is expected that the current inventory de-inventory cycle will be lengthened.
At the same time, driven by the purchase tax incentives, the implementation of the national five emission standards and other factors, as well as the localization of imported models, economic downturn and other unfavorable factors, the demand for imported cars continued to decline, but the decline has narrowed. According to the data submitted by 30 brand dealers of China's imported automobile market information association, the sales volume of imported cars in the first six months of this year was 421,000, down 9.3% year-on-year, down 20.6% from the whole year of 2015. It narrowed by 11.3 percentage points.
Under this circumstance, based on the six-quarter supply adjustment, the industry inventory depth in June 2016 was still 4.5 months, but it has slowed down compared with 4.8 months in the same period last year. According to the dealer inventory survey of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory depth of import distributors in May and June 2016 was 1.52 and 1.35 months, indicating that the dealer inventory depth is reasonable, and the manufacturers (including parallel importers) have high inventory pressure. .
As the decline in import volume narrows, the depth of inventory in the imported auto industry continues to be high, and the preferential price of the terminal price in the imported car market continues to increase. Statistics show that in June this year, the overall average price of the imported car market was 79,000 yuan, with a preferential rate of 12.7%. Although the chain ratio was reduced by 0.4 percentage points, it was still expanded compared with 12.2% in the first quarter.
SUV dominated parallel imported cars against the market. However, it is worth mentioning that parallel imported cars have risen against the market, and imports and proportions continue to climb, which has become a bright color in the overall decline of imported cars.
Data show that from January to June 2016, 54548 vehicles were imported in parallel, an increase of 9.15% year-on-year, accounting for 11.2% of the imported automobile market; SUV is the absolute dominant model in the parallel imported car market, and has maintained a market share of nearly 90%. From January to June 2016, a total of 58 importers had parallel import records, of which 9 imported more than 1,000 importers, a total of 35,662 imported. The top 15 importers imported 38,829 parallel imported cars, with a concentration of 90.4% (80.1% in 2015).
The favorable policy is undoubtedly the biggest driving force for parallel imported cars. This year, parallel imports of vehicles frequently greeted the policy. The Ministry of Commerce successively issued the "Opinions on Supporting the Innovation and Development of the Pilot Free Trade Zone", "Several Opinions of the Ministry of Commerce and Other 8 Departments on Promoting the Pilot Importation of Automobiles", and supported the Pilot Free Trade Zone to carry out parallel imports of automobiles; Announcement on Pilot Measures for CCC Certification Reform of Parallel Imported Automobiles in the Free Trade Zone Supports the parallel import of automobiles in the Pilot Free Trade Zone and simplifies the policy of parallel import licenses; China Quality Certification Center (CQC) issues the “Regular Import Vehicle Certification Management Requirements (Trial) TC11-2016-03.
“The support of national policies and the increasing number of participants have led to a rapid growth in the parallel imported car market. Among them, encouraged by the policies related to small 3C and parallel imports, more participants will come in the future, and this market will compare. Hot." Wang Cun said.
However, it is clear that the industry cannot afford to save the burden of imported cars on parallel imported cars. "It is expected that the proportion of parallel imported cars in the imported automobile market may reach 15% in the next 1-2 years, but in the long run, the proportion of parallel imported cars in the imported automobile market will remain at around 7%." Wang Cun said.
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