Authoritative sources revealed that relevant departments have reached a consensus on the development goals of the wind energy industry in the next decade: that by 2015, cumulative grid-connected wind power capacity will exceed 90 million kilowatts, and the annual power generation capacity will reach 180 billion kilowatt-hours; by 2020, the installed capacity will be The annual power generation target is 150 million kilowatts and 300 billion kwh.
Before that, the market's installed capacity for the wind power industry in 2015 is expected to be 100 million kilowatts, and its forecast for 2020 is as much as 200-250 million kilowatts. The targets set by relevant departments are significantly lower than the previous market expectations.
The targets set by the relevant departments also suggest that China will build 80 million kilowatts of wind power bases in the northeast, northwest and northern parts of northern China and coastal areas during the 2015-2020 period.
Xiao Han, a research fellow of China Investment Advisor New Energy Industry, pointed out that according to the total amount of 90 million kilowatts in 2015, the total amount of other small and medium-sized wind power and offshore wind power projects left by the eight major bases during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period totaled only 1,000. Ten thousand kilowatts. Prior to this, the market had expected more than 10 million kilowatts of offshore wind power.
In fact, it is not difficult to see from the development of the wind energy industry in 2015-2020 that the competent authorities are more conservative in their expectations of small and medium-sized wind power and offshore wind projects—that is, “developing small and medium-sized wind power projects according to local conditions and developing offshore wind power demonstration projectsâ€. ."
According to the introduction, the "speed limit" of the wind power industry is mainly caused by its own problems. In the past five years, the wind power industry has doubled in size, from 1.2 million kilowatts at the end of 2005 to 42.3 million kilowatts at the end of 2010, and the newly added wind power and cumulative installed capacity have leapt to the top in the world. The problems caused by rapid growth have gradually emerged.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that the lack of R&D investment has led to backward technology, overcapacity of equipment, and difficulties in grid integration. These problems are also the source of frequent problems in the development of wind power.
Feng Fei, Minister of Industry and Economic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said: “The development of wind power must focus on reliability, and the time we use wind power is still short, and the problem has not been fully exposed. In the near future, the reliability of wind turbines may be somewhat problematic. Exposed."
Therefore, while the scale of production capacity of the wind energy industry is limited, relevant departments have given higher priority to the quality of industrial development. Authoritative sources revealed that in the next decade, the government will guide enterprises to make greater breakthroughs in wind power operation control and large-scale grid-connected technologies.
The reporter was informed that in order to improve the wind power grid connection capability, relevant departments have established the national standard for wind power grid connection technology, "Technical Regulations for Wind Farm Access to Power System". At present, it has passed the final review and has been submitted to the National Standardization Management Committee. At the same time, the industry standard “Technical Specifications for Large-Scale Wind Farm Grid Connection Design†has also passed the final review and submitted to the National Energy Administration. Among them, it is clear that wind turbines need to have low voltage ride through technology.
Low-voltage ride-through is when the voltage of the grid-connected point is caused by a grid fault, the wind turbine does not run off the grid continuously. When the power system fails, it can be cut out from the grid to improve the safety and stability of the grid.
Low voltage ride through technology is mainly realized by converters. Among the goals set by the relevant departments, the technical development capabilities of key components such as converters have been explicitly mentioned.
Guo Jin Securities researcher Zhang Shuai believes that the important status of converters will continue to increase. According to the estimated installed capacity of 150 million kilowatts in 2020, the capacity of the converter market is expected to be 5.5 billion yuan/year, which is not much different from the level in 2010. However, with the development of local companies, the market share of state-owned products is expected to increase from the current less than 5% to more than 30%, with a growth space of about 6 times.
Xiao Han believes that among the listed companies, Guodian NARI's wind power converters solve the low-voltage ride-through problem well, and this year it is expected to achieve a breakthrough in orders. Haide-controlled wind power converters also pass low voltage ride through certification.
Before that, the market's installed capacity for the wind power industry in 2015 is expected to be 100 million kilowatts, and its forecast for 2020 is as much as 200-250 million kilowatts. The targets set by relevant departments are significantly lower than the previous market expectations.
The targets set by the relevant departments also suggest that China will build 80 million kilowatts of wind power bases in the northeast, northwest and northern parts of northern China and coastal areas during the 2015-2020 period.
Xiao Han, a research fellow of China Investment Advisor New Energy Industry, pointed out that according to the total amount of 90 million kilowatts in 2015, the total amount of other small and medium-sized wind power and offshore wind power projects left by the eight major bases during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period totaled only 1,000. Ten thousand kilowatts. Prior to this, the market had expected more than 10 million kilowatts of offshore wind power.
In fact, it is not difficult to see from the development of the wind energy industry in 2015-2020 that the competent authorities are more conservative in their expectations of small and medium-sized wind power and offshore wind projects—that is, “developing small and medium-sized wind power projects according to local conditions and developing offshore wind power demonstration projectsâ€. ."
According to the introduction, the "speed limit" of the wind power industry is mainly caused by its own problems. In the past five years, the wind power industry has doubled in size, from 1.2 million kilowatts at the end of 2005 to 42.3 million kilowatts at the end of 2010, and the newly added wind power and cumulative installed capacity have leapt to the top in the world. The problems caused by rapid growth have gradually emerged.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that the lack of R&D investment has led to backward technology, overcapacity of equipment, and difficulties in grid integration. These problems are also the source of frequent problems in the development of wind power.
Feng Fei, Minister of Industry and Economic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said: “The development of wind power must focus on reliability, and the time we use wind power is still short, and the problem has not been fully exposed. In the near future, the reliability of wind turbines may be somewhat problematic. Exposed."
Therefore, while the scale of production capacity of the wind energy industry is limited, relevant departments have given higher priority to the quality of industrial development. Authoritative sources revealed that in the next decade, the government will guide enterprises to make greater breakthroughs in wind power operation control and large-scale grid-connected technologies.
The reporter was informed that in order to improve the wind power grid connection capability, relevant departments have established the national standard for wind power grid connection technology, "Technical Regulations for Wind Farm Access to Power System". At present, it has passed the final review and has been submitted to the National Standardization Management Committee. At the same time, the industry standard “Technical Specifications for Large-Scale Wind Farm Grid Connection Design†has also passed the final review and submitted to the National Energy Administration. Among them, it is clear that wind turbines need to have low voltage ride through technology.
Low-voltage ride-through is when the voltage of the grid-connected point is caused by a grid fault, the wind turbine does not run off the grid continuously. When the power system fails, it can be cut out from the grid to improve the safety and stability of the grid.
Low voltage ride through technology is mainly realized by converters. Among the goals set by the relevant departments, the technical development capabilities of key components such as converters have been explicitly mentioned.
Guo Jin Securities researcher Zhang Shuai believes that the important status of converters will continue to increase. According to the estimated installed capacity of 150 million kilowatts in 2020, the capacity of the converter market is expected to be 5.5 billion yuan/year, which is not much different from the level in 2010. However, with the development of local companies, the market share of state-owned products is expected to increase from the current less than 5% to more than 30%, with a growth space of about 6 times.
Xiao Han believes that among the listed companies, Guodian NARI's wind power converters solve the low-voltage ride-through problem well, and this year it is expected to achieve a breakthrough in orders. Haide-controlled wind power converters also pass low voltage ride through certification.
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