According to the information released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on June 9, although the production and sales of automobiles have declined compared with April, the overall production and sales of automobiles have remained at a relatively high level in May, and the total volume has exceeded 1.1 million, creating China's automobile production and sales. A record of over one million vehicles for three consecutive months. Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, believes that the momentum of the auto market is very strong. He is full of confidence that 10 million or more production and sales targets will be completed this year.
Off-season does not fade the overall good car market
Xia Chuanlin, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, explained that the comparative analysis of statistical data over the past decade shows that each year in May is the beginning of the year from the peak season to the beginning of the off-season; the difference is that production and sales in May are usually All can only reach about 80% of April, and this year it has reached about 95%. Therefore, despite the decline in production and sales in May this year, there was still a big increase year-on-year.
According to Zhu Yiping, secretary-general of the SAIC assisting general manager, under the spur of automobile production and sales in May, from January to May, the year-on-year growth rates of automobile production and sales reached 11.10% and 14.29%, respectively. This is the first time that the accumulative production and sales growth reached double digits this year. At the same level (production volume increased by 6.4% from January to April, and sales volume increased by 9.43%), it indicates that the overall automobile production and sales situation continues to improve.
With the gradual recovery of the automotive market, the economic benefits of the industry have also improved. From January to April, the main economic benefit indicators of the 19 key enterprises (groups) of China National Automobile Association showed that the decline was significantly smaller than in the first quarter. Among them, operating income decreased by 10.74%, which was a decrease of 3.41 percentage points; total profit decreased by 27.99%, which was reduced by 20.37 percentage points; industrial added value decreased by 6.46%, which was a decrease of 2.49 percentage points. Among the 19 companies (groups), the operating income of 8 companies was higher than that of the same period of last year, of which 2 were positive growth from the negative growth of the previous month and 8 reductions were narrowed; among 19 companies, 5 companies realized profit growth, 7 The decline in corporate profits slowed.
Structural growth characteristics of commercial vehicles significantly affected macroeconomic situation
The data shows that the production and sales performance of passenger cars and crossover passenger cars in May was still outstanding, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%. From the perspective of the growth in the sedan displacement, the 1.6-liter or lower model still maintains a rapid growth rate, while the overall performance of the high-emission model is not satisfactory. At the same time, the sluggish production and sales of commercial vehicles in May have not seen any improvement, and the total production and sales volume and growth data have continued to decline.
Zhu Yiping believes that this year's car production and sales show a clear structural growth characteristics, the first five months to stimulate the overall growth of the car models is also the policy to benefit the largest models, it can be explained that policy factors are to promote this year's automobile production and sales growth of the main driving force. At the same time, from the perspective of the completion of the sub-months, the continuation of the role of good policies will be a good one, which will become a prominent feature throughout 2009. However, she also said that if the favorable policies can not continue, it will cause great fluctuations in the production and sales of automobiles next year.
With regard to the continuing downturn in the commercial vehicle market, Dong Yang, executive vice chairman and secretary general of the China Automotive Industry Association (AC), told the reporter in an interview that due to the large differences in the purchase targets of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, the policy of expanding domestic demand on the one hand The effect on commercial vehicles is obviously inferior to that of passenger vehicles. On the one hand, it can be seen from the sales situation of commercial vehicles that the sales volume of models used for construction such as dump trucks is significantly better than the models used for transportation. This has a very big impact on the macroeconomic situation. close. At present, the real economy has not improved and the overall traffic volume has not recovered. These have a great impact on the downturn in the commercial vehicle market.
Dong Yang said that for the commercial vehicle companies faced with huge operational pressures this year, the state has introduced some policies, but these policies are obviously not enough. The association is also investigating proposed proposals, including simplifying the procedures for commercial vehicles to go to the countryside and eliminating light With regard to the 5% consumption tax of buses and other proposals, it is hoped that the relevant government departments will introduce more vigorous policies to promote the development of commercial vehicles.
Overseas market "machine" is greater than "crisis"
In terms of car exports, the sharp drop in May has not changed. According to the export statistics of auto vehicle manufacturers summarized by China National Automobile Industry Association, 24,000 vehicles were exported in May, a decrease of 8.16% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 64.36%. In the first five months, a total of 111,700 vehicles were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 61.52%.
In this regard, Xiong Chuanlin did not need to be too pessimistic. He believes that China's auto exports have little effect on the total sales of automobiles; at the same time, compared with other major auto exporters in the world, China’s export decline ratio is relatively small. He believes that automobile exports mainly depend on the global economic situation, so it is difficult to rely on policies to promote, but the country can give corresponding support from the financing of car purchases.
Talking about the impact of the current international economic situation on China's auto industry, Dong Yang's point of view is that the opportunity is greater than the challenge. He believes that the adjustment of the international automobile pattern and the shrinking global high-cost, large-displacement model market have provided opportunities for the development of relatively weak Chinese automobiles.
In terms of overseas mergers and acquisitions, Dong Yang believes that Chinese car companies do not have sufficient strength. He pointed out that overseas mergers and acquisitions require companies to have sufficient overseas operations and management capabilities, just like loans to buy a house, in addition to paying the down payment, they will be repaid and maintained in the future. Regarding the emergence of many “unpopular enterprises†in the international restructuring, Dong Yang believes that this appears to be normal in the shuffling process, but domestic companies are not fully confident that they do not rashly attack. He said that the current steady state of the three major Chinese groups is very high. Good example.
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