Zhu Xiuyan, president of the China National Natural Rubber Association, stated on the 9th that with the rapid economic development, the demand for natural rubber in China will exceed 4.8 million tons in 2015, of which only annual demand for automobile tires is expected to exceed 3.3 million tons. The domestic production capacity is seriously insufficient, and the natural rubber gap is expected to exceed 4/5.
According to the data, by the end of 2010, the total rubber planting area in the country had exceeded 1 million hectares and the dry glue output was 687,000 tons. However, the demand increased more rapidly, and the domestic natural rubber self-sufficiency rate has been declining year by year. "In 2010, domestic consumption reached 3.12 million tons, and self-sufficiency was only 20%. The gap has reached 4/5." Zhu Xiuyan said.
At present, about 70% of natural rubber is used in tire manufacturing. According to market forecasts, China's tire production in 2015 will reach 560 million. “Only one car tire, the annual demand for natural rubber will exceed 3.3 million tons, plus rickshaws, motorcycles and rubber shoes, pipe belts, etc. The total demand for natural rubber will reach 4.8 million tons by 2015. Even if all All kinds of rubber should be planted, the yield calculated by 80%, natural rubber gap will still be more than 4/5." Zhu Xiuyan said.
Due to strong demand, natural rubber prices are extremely strong. In February of this year, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber futures once climbed to the 40,000 yuan per ton mark. Despite the subsequent price correction due to supply and other reasons, it still received strong support near 29,000 yuan. By the close of June 9th, the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Tianjiao, closed at 33,0535 yuan in September, basically returning to the level in late April.
Analysts said that the decline in car sales and production in Southeast Asia's major producing areas are also expected to decline. This, coupled with the gradual entry into the tapping period in the main producing countries, has resulted in large investor disagreements and the market is still waiting for further guidance. "However, it is worth noting that the recent poor weather in Southeast Asia, resulting in reduced supply may stimulate spot prices to rise, and with the gradual recovery of demand, futures prices will continue to rise in the medium to long term." Analysts pointed out.
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