The United States and Europe, which have been leading the development trend of renewable energy, have suffered a setback in the development of wind power in 2010, raising concerns about the prospects for global wind power development.
In 2010, the newly installed capacity of wind power in the United States was 5.1 million kilowatts, which was equivalent to only one half of its 10 million kilowatts in 2009. This is the first negative increase in installed capacity of wind power in the United States since 2004. The situation in Europe is even worse. Due to the fiscal tightening in European countries, the growth rate of wind power has dropped dramatically. In October last year, Vestas, the world's largest wind turbine manufacturer, laid off 3,000 people at its Danish headquarters, a rate of 15%, and closed down Denmark. And Sweden's five factories.
The wind power industry, which has always had a good momentum of development, has suddenly suffered a setback and has caused the industry to be puzzled. Many public opinion believes that wind power has encountered a growth bottleneck on a global scale. In the past few years, after experiencing rapid development, has the once-created sunrise industry come to an end?
European and American Investment Chills In early March, Ernst & Young issued a global survey of the National Renewable Energy Attraction Index. According to a survey conducted by Ernst & Young, the installed installed capacity of wind power in the United States was 5.1 million kilowatts in 2010, which is equivalent to only two-fifths of new installed capacity in 2009. one. This is the smallest increase in installed capacity of wind power in the United States in recent years.
As early as the 1980s, the United States tried to develop wind power, but its scale was relatively limited before 2000. Since 2004, under the pressure of renewable energy heat and carbon emission reduction, wind power development in the United States has gained momentum. By 2009, the total installed capacity of U.S. wind power reached 35.16 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world.
However, after the financial crisis, subject to policy support and investment decline in the field of wind power, the development of wind power in the United States has significantly slowed down. In 2010, the total installed capacity of wind power in China surpassed the United States for the first time.
Chen Hang, president of Usfor Pittsburgh energy consulting company Usfor, said that the US wind power industry is currently in a state of chaos, mainly because of lack of funds. He believes that the U.S. federal government’s support for wind energy and North America’s depressed natural gas prices have hindered the development of U.S. wind power industry.
The development of wind power in the United States is completely market-oriented. If wind power does not have a competitive advantage in the market, the speed of development will decline. As the cost of wind power is relatively high, the speed of over-speed wind power generation will increase the development cost of the entire society. Therefore, after the financial crisis, the deceleration of wind power in the United States is normal, and Li Qionghui, director of the New Energy Research Institute of the State Grid Energy Research Institute. So said.
Whether new energy, including wind power, can continue to thrive depends largely on the demand for wind energy from carbon reduction targets. According to Li Qionghui, another factor driving the U.S. wind power policy is the recent slow progress in international emissions reductions. "Although the Copenhagen conference reached a certain level of consensus, the specific target for reducing emissions in 2012 is not clear. This has, to a certain extent, reduced the U.S. policy to promote the development of wind power."
The long-term downturn in natural gas prices in the North American market has significantly reduced the cost of natural gas power generation, which has directly affected the development of higher-cost wind power. Since 2008, with the massive development of shale gas in North America and the increase in the supply of natural gas in the Middle East, natural gas prices in the world have plummeted. From June 2008 to the end of 2010, Platts Energy Index's natural gas prices fell by nearly 70%.
Although Obama proposed an ambitious goal in his State of the Union address early in the year - 80% of U.S. electricity will be supplied by clean energy by 2035, a study by Cambridge Energy Consulting for U.S. wind energy market believes that the economic crisis will make the U.S. The economy, coupled with the lack of an effective energy policy in the United States, is highly likely to disorient the development of new energy in the United States.
Similar to the situation in the United States, the growth rate of the European wind power industry also experienced a sharp decline. In 2010, the new wind power installations and cumulative wind power installations in the EU accounted for 25.96% and 43.36% of the world respectively, both reaching historical lows.
Dretrie Ing, CEO of Vestas Wind Power Group, told the media not long ago that European countries’ austerity measures will slow the growth rate of the European wind power industry. According to Citigroup analysts' forecasts, the increase in wind power installed capacity in Europe in 2011 will decrease from 14% in 2010 to 1%. Green energy development has become more challenging in Europe.
The European Wind Energy Association believes that the main reason for the decline in new wind power installations in Europe is that wind power investors have concerns about economic development and concerns about wind power grid connection capabilities.
China suffers a "policy market"?
In China, although the development of wind power continues its strong momentum of development, the installed capacity of new machines reached 16.5 million kilowatts in 2010. However, the frequent introduction of relevant policies recently seems to have given the development of wind power a cold water. The industry is therefore concerned that the Chinese wind power market, which has been rampant for five years, may be encountering a “policy market†and the pace of development will slow down in the coming years.
At the beginning of 2011, the Central No. 1 document was locked in water conservancy and it is expected that the investment will be as high as 4 trillion in 10 years, which will greatly increase the proportion of hydropower in renewable energy in the next few years. The position of nuclear power in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" has also gradually become more prominent. Industry insiders expect that China's nuclear power capacity will reach 100 million kilowatts by 2020, which is 10 times higher than the current level. The future planning of hydropower and nuclear power, and the “unstable operation of wind power, can not be used as the main support force of the power grid, can only be appropriate to participate in peak adjustment of the power grid,†and it is even more clear that China’s wind power industry has been provided with footnotes in the coming years.
In the secondary market, the concept of wind power shares is no longer the first choice for investors. The concepts of wind power, including Goldwind, Sinovel, and Longyuan, have all performed flat recently. Sinovel has even broken through the wind.
In this regard, the president of Vestas China, Don Mart, believes that wind power is an integral part of renewable energy, and a healthy balance in the field of renewable energy in China will benefit the entire market. “It is time to test the ability of sustainable development of wind power. This requires us to ensure both the safety record of the industry and the reliability of the solution. We always believe that the development of wind energy has great potential in China.†Tang Mahler said.
The speed of wind power development in recent years in China has made it hard for businesses to sit back and seriously reflect. From 2005 to 2009, Chinese wind power increased at a rate of 100% per year. By the end of 2010, the installed capacity of wind power in China had reached 42 million kilowatts. According to the plan of 5 years ago, the target by 2020 is only 30 million kilowatts.
On the other hand, the stand-alone size of wind turbines has already been scaled from kilowatts to megawatts, ranging from 1 megawatt, 1.5 megawatts to 2 megawatts, and 3 megawatts. It took only one or two years to complete the current situation. Sharp's 6 MW wind turbine is about to go offline, and the domestic 10 MW wind turbine is also under development.
But Tang Male, president of Vestas China, said that the fan is not as big as possible. If the wind farm is not well-assessed in the previous period, blindly launching a high-power fan will cause damage to the fan itself and the developer. Developers should select the right wind turbine through scientific microsite selection and a 20-year power generation cycle. “China's untapped wind farms are mostly low- and medium-speed wind farms, so the new fan products we launched in 2011 are based on the V100 turbine developed on the 2 MW platform rather than the large-megawatt fan suitable for high-speed wind farms.â€
People in the industry believe that over the past few years, over-developed Chinese wind power has accumulated a lot of problems that need to be solved. In the next few years, if wind power development can take a rest under the guidance of policies, it may not be a good thing.
The rest is still turning, but in the eyes of Li Qionghui, director of the New Energy Research Institute of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, the development of China’s wind power is not even a stop-gap because “as long as China’s electricity price policy is not adjusted, the momentum of wind power development will not be reversed. ."
Li said that the electricity price policy refers to China's wind power tariff subsidy policy. Because the country currently grants generators a large amount of electricity price subsidies, wind power has great profits in China, which has fundamentally promoted the rapid development of China's wind power industry.
“Despite the high cost of wind power generation, the state gives high subsidies. At present, the five major power generation groups generally suffer from the loss of thermal power, but wind power can be profitable, without changing the price policy, the industry's profitability will always promote the rapid development of wind power.†Li Qionghui said .
At present, China's subsidy for wind power is calculated based on the wind resource price minus the local thermal power benchmark price. This subsidy is very favorable. Some developers have expressed that under the current subsidy, as long as they can generate electricity, they can earn money.
"Once the adjustment of the electricity price policy, the enthusiasm of developers will be hit. At that time, the wind power boom may retreat," said Li Qionghui.
According to international practice, the development of new energy to a certain extent, the subsidy will be a step-down decline, Germany after the financial crisis cut down the on-grid solar power prices, which also led to the development of the German solar industry cooling to a large extent.
Another reason for China's relentless rise in wind power is that the industrial properties of wind power are much larger than their energy attributes in China. Although the current 31 million kilowatts of grid-connected wind power provides a negligible proportion of the total power generation, the development of wind power Can greatly promote the development of related upstream and downstream industries. This is undoubtedly an important bargaining chip for local GDP in the eyes of policy makers.
Former National Energy Administration Director Zhang Guobao also stated during the two sessions that under the high international oil prices and the country’s efforts to develop new energy sources, China’s wind power industry will continue to develop rapidly during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period.
On a global scale, it seems premature to talk about the development of wind power. According to the analysis of the Global Wind Energy Association, although the growth of wind power development in Europe has slowed down in recent years, it will continue to lead the future in research and development. The global wind power giant Vestas annual report shows that in 2010, as many as 227 patents were registered, the number of work-related accidents in one million work hours fell to five. In contrast, due to over-development of domestic wind power, the accident rate of work accidents has risen sharply, and even last year there have been a large number of fires on the chassis and collapse of towers. The quality of wind turbines once caused a strong response in the industry.
Li Qionghui believes that due to the relatively saturated development of onshore wind power in Europe and its emphasis has shifted to offshore, the development of offshore wind power is much more difficult than onshore. Therefore, the slow development of European wind power is a normal reflection of the development of the industry to a certain extent. . “Europe will continue to lead the world in the field of wind power, especially in the research and development of offshore wind power, the advantages are more obvious, and global wind power development will not stop there.†Li Qionghui said.
In 2010, the newly installed capacity of wind power in the United States was 5.1 million kilowatts, which was equivalent to only one half of its 10 million kilowatts in 2009. This is the first negative increase in installed capacity of wind power in the United States since 2004. The situation in Europe is even worse. Due to the fiscal tightening in European countries, the growth rate of wind power has dropped dramatically. In October last year, Vestas, the world's largest wind turbine manufacturer, laid off 3,000 people at its Danish headquarters, a rate of 15%, and closed down Denmark. And Sweden's five factories.
The wind power industry, which has always had a good momentum of development, has suddenly suffered a setback and has caused the industry to be puzzled. Many public opinion believes that wind power has encountered a growth bottleneck on a global scale. In the past few years, after experiencing rapid development, has the once-created sunrise industry come to an end?
European and American Investment Chills In early March, Ernst & Young issued a global survey of the National Renewable Energy Attraction Index. According to a survey conducted by Ernst & Young, the installed installed capacity of wind power in the United States was 5.1 million kilowatts in 2010, which is equivalent to only two-fifths of new installed capacity in 2009. one. This is the smallest increase in installed capacity of wind power in the United States in recent years.
As early as the 1980s, the United States tried to develop wind power, but its scale was relatively limited before 2000. Since 2004, under the pressure of renewable energy heat and carbon emission reduction, wind power development in the United States has gained momentum. By 2009, the total installed capacity of U.S. wind power reached 35.16 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world.
However, after the financial crisis, subject to policy support and investment decline in the field of wind power, the development of wind power in the United States has significantly slowed down. In 2010, the total installed capacity of wind power in China surpassed the United States for the first time.
Chen Hang, president of Usfor Pittsburgh energy consulting company Usfor, said that the US wind power industry is currently in a state of chaos, mainly because of lack of funds. He believes that the U.S. federal government’s support for wind energy and North America’s depressed natural gas prices have hindered the development of U.S. wind power industry.
The development of wind power in the United States is completely market-oriented. If wind power does not have a competitive advantage in the market, the speed of development will decline. As the cost of wind power is relatively high, the speed of over-speed wind power generation will increase the development cost of the entire society. Therefore, after the financial crisis, the deceleration of wind power in the United States is normal, and Li Qionghui, director of the New Energy Research Institute of the State Grid Energy Research Institute. So said.
Whether new energy, including wind power, can continue to thrive depends largely on the demand for wind energy from carbon reduction targets. According to Li Qionghui, another factor driving the U.S. wind power policy is the recent slow progress in international emissions reductions. "Although the Copenhagen conference reached a certain level of consensus, the specific target for reducing emissions in 2012 is not clear. This has, to a certain extent, reduced the U.S. policy to promote the development of wind power."
The long-term downturn in natural gas prices in the North American market has significantly reduced the cost of natural gas power generation, which has directly affected the development of higher-cost wind power. Since 2008, with the massive development of shale gas in North America and the increase in the supply of natural gas in the Middle East, natural gas prices in the world have plummeted. From June 2008 to the end of 2010, Platts Energy Index's natural gas prices fell by nearly 70%.
Although Obama proposed an ambitious goal in his State of the Union address early in the year - 80% of U.S. electricity will be supplied by clean energy by 2035, a study by Cambridge Energy Consulting for U.S. wind energy market believes that the economic crisis will make the U.S. The economy, coupled with the lack of an effective energy policy in the United States, is highly likely to disorient the development of new energy in the United States.
Similar to the situation in the United States, the growth rate of the European wind power industry also experienced a sharp decline. In 2010, the new wind power installations and cumulative wind power installations in the EU accounted for 25.96% and 43.36% of the world respectively, both reaching historical lows.
Dretrie Ing, CEO of Vestas Wind Power Group, told the media not long ago that European countries’ austerity measures will slow the growth rate of the European wind power industry. According to Citigroup analysts' forecasts, the increase in wind power installed capacity in Europe in 2011 will decrease from 14% in 2010 to 1%. Green energy development has become more challenging in Europe.
The European Wind Energy Association believes that the main reason for the decline in new wind power installations in Europe is that wind power investors have concerns about economic development and concerns about wind power grid connection capabilities.
China suffers a "policy market"?
In China, although the development of wind power continues its strong momentum of development, the installed capacity of new machines reached 16.5 million kilowatts in 2010. However, the frequent introduction of relevant policies recently seems to have given the development of wind power a cold water. The industry is therefore concerned that the Chinese wind power market, which has been rampant for five years, may be encountering a “policy market†and the pace of development will slow down in the coming years.
At the beginning of 2011, the Central No. 1 document was locked in water conservancy and it is expected that the investment will be as high as 4 trillion in 10 years, which will greatly increase the proportion of hydropower in renewable energy in the next few years. The position of nuclear power in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" has also gradually become more prominent. Industry insiders expect that China's nuclear power capacity will reach 100 million kilowatts by 2020, which is 10 times higher than the current level. The future planning of hydropower and nuclear power, and the “unstable operation of wind power, can not be used as the main support force of the power grid, can only be appropriate to participate in peak adjustment of the power grid,†and it is even more clear that China’s wind power industry has been provided with footnotes in the coming years.
In the secondary market, the concept of wind power shares is no longer the first choice for investors. The concepts of wind power, including Goldwind, Sinovel, and Longyuan, have all performed flat recently. Sinovel has even broken through the wind.
In this regard, the president of Vestas China, Don Mart, believes that wind power is an integral part of renewable energy, and a healthy balance in the field of renewable energy in China will benefit the entire market. “It is time to test the ability of sustainable development of wind power. This requires us to ensure both the safety record of the industry and the reliability of the solution. We always believe that the development of wind energy has great potential in China.†Tang Mahler said.
The speed of wind power development in recent years in China has made it hard for businesses to sit back and seriously reflect. From 2005 to 2009, Chinese wind power increased at a rate of 100% per year. By the end of 2010, the installed capacity of wind power in China had reached 42 million kilowatts. According to the plan of 5 years ago, the target by 2020 is only 30 million kilowatts.
On the other hand, the stand-alone size of wind turbines has already been scaled from kilowatts to megawatts, ranging from 1 megawatt, 1.5 megawatts to 2 megawatts, and 3 megawatts. It took only one or two years to complete the current situation. Sharp's 6 MW wind turbine is about to go offline, and the domestic 10 MW wind turbine is also under development.
But Tang Male, president of Vestas China, said that the fan is not as big as possible. If the wind farm is not well-assessed in the previous period, blindly launching a high-power fan will cause damage to the fan itself and the developer. Developers should select the right wind turbine through scientific microsite selection and a 20-year power generation cycle. “China's untapped wind farms are mostly low- and medium-speed wind farms, so the new fan products we launched in 2011 are based on the V100 turbine developed on the 2 MW platform rather than the large-megawatt fan suitable for high-speed wind farms.â€
People in the industry believe that over the past few years, over-developed Chinese wind power has accumulated a lot of problems that need to be solved. In the next few years, if wind power development can take a rest under the guidance of policies, it may not be a good thing.
The rest is still turning, but in the eyes of Li Qionghui, director of the New Energy Research Institute of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, the development of China’s wind power is not even a stop-gap because “as long as China’s electricity price policy is not adjusted, the momentum of wind power development will not be reversed. ."
Li said that the electricity price policy refers to China's wind power tariff subsidy policy. Because the country currently grants generators a large amount of electricity price subsidies, wind power has great profits in China, which has fundamentally promoted the rapid development of China's wind power industry.
“Despite the high cost of wind power generation, the state gives high subsidies. At present, the five major power generation groups generally suffer from the loss of thermal power, but wind power can be profitable, without changing the price policy, the industry's profitability will always promote the rapid development of wind power.†Li Qionghui said .
At present, China's subsidy for wind power is calculated based on the wind resource price minus the local thermal power benchmark price. This subsidy is very favorable. Some developers have expressed that under the current subsidy, as long as they can generate electricity, they can earn money.
"Once the adjustment of the electricity price policy, the enthusiasm of developers will be hit. At that time, the wind power boom may retreat," said Li Qionghui.
According to international practice, the development of new energy to a certain extent, the subsidy will be a step-down decline, Germany after the financial crisis cut down the on-grid solar power prices, which also led to the development of the German solar industry cooling to a large extent.
Another reason for China's relentless rise in wind power is that the industrial properties of wind power are much larger than their energy attributes in China. Although the current 31 million kilowatts of grid-connected wind power provides a negligible proportion of the total power generation, the development of wind power Can greatly promote the development of related upstream and downstream industries. This is undoubtedly an important bargaining chip for local GDP in the eyes of policy makers.
Former National Energy Administration Director Zhang Guobao also stated during the two sessions that under the high international oil prices and the country’s efforts to develop new energy sources, China’s wind power industry will continue to develop rapidly during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period.
On a global scale, it seems premature to talk about the development of wind power. According to the analysis of the Global Wind Energy Association, although the growth of wind power development in Europe has slowed down in recent years, it will continue to lead the future in research and development. The global wind power giant Vestas annual report shows that in 2010, as many as 227 patents were registered, the number of work-related accidents in one million work hours fell to five. In contrast, due to over-development of domestic wind power, the accident rate of work accidents has risen sharply, and even last year there have been a large number of fires on the chassis and collapse of towers. The quality of wind turbines once caused a strong response in the industry.
Li Qionghui believes that due to the relatively saturated development of onshore wind power in Europe and its emphasis has shifted to offshore, the development of offshore wind power is much more difficult than onshore. Therefore, the slow development of European wind power is a normal reflection of the development of the industry to a certain extent. . “Europe will continue to lead the world in the field of wind power, especially in the research and development of offshore wind power, the advantages are more obvious, and global wind power development will not stop there.†Li Qionghui said.
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